The net profit of 22Q1 is + 341% compared with the same period last year, and it is optimistic to turn losses into profits for the whole year.
Jingneng Electric Power announcement revealed that in 2021, the company achieved revenue of 22.2 billion yuan, year-on-year + 11%, mother net profit of-3.11 billion yuan, year-on-year-323%, loss mainly due to soaring coal prices; 22Q1 revenue of 7.8 billion yuan, year-on-year + 40%, home net profit of 290 million yuan, year-on-year + 341%, thanks to rising electricity prices. Taking into account the commissioning of the new unit and the marketization of electricity price, it is estimated that the return net profit in 22-24 years is 7.2 billion yuan RMB 1.25 billion yuan (previous value:
6.5ax 9.6m), BPS 3.34max 3.46pm 3.62yuan (previous value: 3.83pm 3.92max-yuan). With reference to the comparable 22-year average PB of 0.99x, the company's thermal power assets are relatively high-quality, giving the 22-year 1.0x target PB, the target price 3.34 yuan (the previous value 3.01yuan, based on the 21-year 0.8xPB), maintaining the "overweight" rating.
Thermal power units continue to advance, and the volume and price are expected to rise in 22 years.
At the end of 21, the company controls the installed capacity 17.14GW, which is + 0.41 GW compared with the same period last year; the equity installed capacity 19.46GW, 0.38 GW compared with the same period last year; and the installed capacity under construction, 4.31GW. According to the construction progress of the project, we expect to put into production in 22-24 years. In 21 years, the company's thermal power generation was-2.5% compared with the same period last year, and the average utilization hours were-487 hours compared with the same period last year, mainly due to high coal prices. Under the support of the policy, the transaction electricity price rises gradually, and the average transaction price of the company in 21 years is + 66 yuan / MWh, and the marketization ratio is + 7pp. With the promotion of the marketization of electricity prices and the enhancement of coal supply capacity, we are optimistic that thermal power will rise in volume and price in the past 22 years.
Actively lay out the new energy industry and steadily expand the thermal market
Relying on the advantage of thermal power stock and obtaining the new energy target through the flexible transformation capacity of thermal power, the company completed the new energy project record in 21 years and announced the construction of 0.45GW photovoltaic project in January-April of 22 years, which helps the company to transform into an integrated energy supplier. The company has expanded the heating and gas supply market. In 21 years, the capacity of heating units has reached 81%, the cumulative heat supply is + 4%, the heating area is + 8%, and the average heat price is + 7% over the same period last year.
The profit is expected to be repaired and the overweight rating is maintained.
The fundamentals of the thermal power industry have gradually bottomed out, and the company's 22Q1 performance has been greatly improved, and it is expected to turn losses into profits for the whole year. The average 22-year PB of the comparable company is 0.99x (Wind consensus expectation), and the company's current stock price corresponds to 22-year 0.89xPB. The company has high-quality thermal power assets, giving the company 22-year 1.0xPB, with a target price of 3.34 yuan per share (the previous value is 3.01 yuan, based on 21-year 0.8xPB). Maintain the overweight rating.
Risk tips: the increase in coal prices is higher than expected, the number of hours of utilization is declining, and the progress of projects under construction is not as expected.