This report is read as follows:
Benefiting from the strong demand downstream, the company's performance increased rapidly in 2021; the decrease in orders caused by the 2022Q1 epidemic dragged down the company's performance, and the gradual release of fund-raising project capacity laid a good foundation for medium-and long-term performance growth.
Main points of investment:
Investment advice: 2 022Q1 orders affected by the epidemic have been reduced, taking into account the uncertainty of the current epidemic, the reduction of 2022 EPS 2023, the new 2024 EPS forecast to 2.01 pounds 2.78 yuan (before the adjustment of 2022 pounds in 2023 to 2.54 pounds 3.02 yuan), taking into account the strong growth of the company, the company is slightly higher than the industry average of 18 times PE in 2022, cut the target price to 36.18 yuan, maintain "increase".
Event: the company's 2021 revenue / return net profit was 642 million yuan respectively, compared with the same period last year, + 74.22% and 67.77% respectively, and the performance was in line with expectations. The company's 2022Q1 revenue / return net profit was 0.80 trillion yuan respectively, compared with the same period last year, which was-47.29% and 53.42%, respectively.
In 2021, the best-selling airtight materials led to a high increase in income, and rising costs pulled down gross profit margins. 1) Revenue side: the high revenue growth of the company in 2021 is mainly driven by the growth of airtight materials, and the revenue of this kind of products is from + 82.26% to 544 million yuan (volume + 71.69% / price + 6.16%). The high sales growth is mainly due to the significant increase in demand for outdoor / indoor sports. 2) Gross profit margin: the company's gross profit margin in 2021 is from-3.17pct to 39.64% compared with the same period last year, mainly due to the continuous rise in raw material prices and high international shipping prices in 2021, and the cost increase is difficult to transmit downstream in time, resulting in a reduction in gross profit margin.
The 2022Q1 epidemic is a short-term drag on performance, and the production capacity of fund-raising projects is gradually released. The 2022Q1 epidemic led to a reduction in orders, a decline in capacity utilization, and a rise in raw material prices led to a year-on-year gross profit margin of-10.40pct to 33.37%. We expect that as the impact of the epidemic weakens, orders are expected to resume gradually. at the same time, the company's investment project has an annual output of 4.5 million square meters of silk-based cloth construction project and high-performance industrial composite new material technical renovation project. At present, some of the equipment has been installed, debugged and put into production, and the company's own production capacity is expected to be further released.
Risk factors: the epidemic repeatedly affected terminal demand, and raw materials rose more than expected