Event: according to the company's first-quarter report in 2022, 2022Q1 achieved 499 million yuan in revenue, an increase of 6.98% over the same period last year; the net profit belonging to shareholders of listed companies was 121 million yuan, turning losses to profits over 2021 Q1, an increase of 960.23% over the same period last year; deducting non-parent net profit was 82 million yuan, turning losses into profits over 2021 Q1; net cash flow from operating activities was-598 million yuan.
(1) COVID-19 vaccine is still the company's main revenue-generating product. 2022Q1 achieved revenue of 499 million yuan, an increase of 6.98% over the same period last year. After the company's new crown disease Miao Keweisha was approved in 2021, large-scale vaccination was carried out in China, Mexico, Chile and other countries. Although the sales and vaccination of COVID-19 vaccine at home and abroad have slowed down in 2022, it is still the company's main income-generating product at this stage. 2022Q1 achieved revenue of 499 million yuan, an increase of 6.98% over the same period last year. In February 2022, the company's new crown disease vaccine Keweisha was approved for sequential enhanced immunization in China; in March 2022, the company obtained the GMP certification of WHO and is currently conducting a follow-up review process to include Keweisha in the Emergency use list (EUL). In addition, the company's inhaled COVID-19 vaccine has completed phase Ⅱ clinical trials and is expected to be approved for sequential vaccination in view of its excellent data results.
(2) the profitability was further enhanced, the gross profit margin reached 70%, and the sales expenses increased by 379% over the same period last year. With the large-scale production of COVID-19 vaccine, the profit is further enhanced. The gross profit margin of 2021Q1 increased to 70.27% (+ 18.27pp), the net sales profit margin was 23% (+ 26.26pp), the sales expense was 34 million yuan (yoy+378.52%), and the sales expense rate was 6.87% (+ 5.3pp), mainly due to the increase in sales promotion investment after the listing of COVID-19 Vaccine, MCV2 and MCV4. The management cost is 64 million yuan (yoy+330.93%), the management expense rate is 44.31%, which is 16.7% lower than the same period last year, mainly due to the increase of employee salary; the R & D cost is 157 million yuan (yoy-41.75%), the R & D expense rate is 31.47%, which is 26% lower than the same period last year, mainly due to the commercialization of the company's recombinant novel coronavirus vaccine (adenovirus type 5) in 2021. And the R & D progress and stages of the products under research lead to the reduction of R & D investment.
(3) the release of meningococcal meningitis is imminent, which is expected to become a new performance growth point of the company, and the mRNA COVID-19 vaccine has been approved clinically. 2022Q1 two meningococcal vaccine MCV2 and MCV4 have been approved to go on the market, of which MCV2 has begun to contribute profits, and MCV4 is expected to start generating revenue in the second half of the year. The blockbuster product MCV4 is expected to occupy a large market share in the non-immunization program vaccine market and become a new performance growth point of the company. In the research products, PCV13i vaccine has entered phase III clinical trial; TB- tuberculosis enhanced vaccine and PBPV pneumonia protein vaccine with global innovative technology have completed clinical phase Ib and Ia trials respectively; and DTcP and DTcP enhanced vaccines for infants and young children have completed clinical phase I trials. In April 2022, the clinical trial application of novel coronavirus mRNA vaccine, a product under research by the company, was approved by the State Drug Administration. Novel coronavirus mRNA vaccine is a new generation vaccine with protective effect against existing mutants, and its follow-up clinical results are worth looking forward to.
Profit forecast: considering the year-on-year decline in the price of the company's new coronavirus vector vaccine at home and abroad in 2022, we expect the company's net return profit from 2022 to 2024 to be 937 million yuan, 1.508 billion yuan and 1.705 billion yuan, respectively, an increase of-50.13%, 60.96% and 13.03% EPS respectively. The company's current share price corresponds to the 2022-2024 PE valuation of 40.14,24.94,22.06 times, respectively, maintaining the company's "highly recommended" investment rating.
Risk tips: COVID-19 epidemic related risks; core competitiveness risk; product sales do not meet expectations of the risk; new product research and development does not meet the expected risk.