Aquaculture business is under pressure, low fattening ratio depresses short-term financial pressure, maintain "buy" rating companies achieve revenue of 18.038 billion yuan (+ 56.62%) in 2021, return mother net profit-1.52 billion yuan (- 365.25%), Q1 realize operating income of 4.155 billion yuan (+ 6.71%) in 2022, return mother net profit-352 million yuan (- 317.06%), pig price cycle low operation It is a drag on 2021 and 2022Q1 performance. The pig price band has risen since late March and is expected to break the industry cost and start the pig price boom cycle in the second half of 2022. Based on the downward adjustment of the 2022 forecast and the increase of the 2023 forecast, it is estimated that the company's 2022-2024 net return profit is-771.985 billion RMB 2.398 billion (2022-2023 pre-forecast 1.312 billion RMB), the EPS is-1.12ap2.86 shock 3.46 yuan respectively, and the current share price is 5.8 4.8 times of-14.8 pm PE. The number of pigs produced by the company and the supporting ratio are expected to be completed at the bottom of the cycle, and the upstream market is sufficiently flexible to maintain the "buy" rating.
The number of live pigs has maintained a high growth rate, and the company has produced 3.2459 million pigs (+ 141.10%) in the reporting period of the expansion at the bottom of the fattening cycle. ), piglet sales accounted for 58.3% of Porcine 2022Q1 sales 1.0468 million pigs (+ 95.81%). The fattening cost of commercial pigs in 2021Q4 company is 19 yuan per kilogram, and the cost of weaning piglets is about 450 yuan per piglet. From January to February in 2022, the fattening cost of the company maintained a downward trend, about 18.8 yuan / kg, and the cost of weaned piglets was about 440 yuan per piglet. In terms of pig production capacity, by the end of 2021, the company will be able to breed 260000 sows and 50,000 reserve sows. The company aims to achieve 600x800 / 10 million fattening in 2022-2024 and increase the fattening ratio to 75% in 2023-2024. The company has suspended the unstarted projects in 2022, and the new fattening field in the short term will mainly be leased. It is expected that as pig sales turn from losses to profits, the company will consider expanding fattening capacity through replacement and repurchase.
The feed, slaughtering and animal protection business grew steadily, and the integrated model provided sufficient cash flow for the breeding business. During the reporting period, the company's feed business achieved an income of 10.131 billion yuan (+ 55.47%) and a sales volume of 2.8408 million tons of feed (+ 36.47%). Among them, pig feed / poultry feed / aquatic products and other feed sales were 168.65MB 73.38 million tons, respectively, year-on-year changes of + 66.42% 9.72% and 64.72%. During the reporting period, the company entered the downstream business of key pork consumption areas, and the income from slaughtering, food and animal protection business increased by 374.01% and 26.62% respectively compared with the same period last year, providing sufficient liquidity for the breeding business to speed up the opening up of the upstream and downstream of the industrial chain.
Risk tips: repeated global epidemics, rising seed prices inhibit planting sentiment, rising seed production costs, and so on.