Event: in 2021, the company realized operating income of 6.968 billion yuan (year-on-year + 20.44%) and net profit of 270 million yuan (year-on-year + 70.49%). Among them, 2021Q4 realized operating income of 2.014 billion yuan (year-on-year + 21.57%) and net profit of 67 million yuan (year-on-year + 465%). In addition, in the first quarter of 2022, the company realized operating income of 1.853 billion yuan (year-on-year + 22.18%) and net profit of 64 million yuan (year-on-year-21.24%).
Comments:
Volume and prices rose in 21 years, and the growth continued in the first quarter. (1) thanks to the company's continuous optimization of product structure and production capacity layout, revenue and profit grew well in 2021. In terms of products, the revenue of metal beverage cans / packaging color printing iron in 2021 increased by 29% / 17% / to 59.17 / 1.031 billion yuan, and sales increased by 20% / 15% to 13.31 billion cans / 166000 tons respectively. From a regional point of view, the company's domestic / overseas income increased by 32% / 6.5% to 57.0 / 1.24 billion yuan respectively compared with the same period last year. (2) the domestic epidemic has an impact on logistics. 2022Q1 strives to overcome difficulties and achieve a 22% increase in revenue, continuing a good momentum. As the epidemic gradually alleviates, the revenue side is expected to maintain good growth.
Gross profit margin and expense rate decreased compared with the same period last year. (1) the company's gross profit margin in 2021 was 9.51% (year-on-year-1.07 pct), mainly due to the increase in the price of raw materials. In 2021, the company expense rate was 4.76% (- 0.31 pct), of which the sales expense rate was 0.81% (- 0.04 pct), the management expense rate was 2.89% (+ 0.33 pct), the R & D expense rate was 0.73% (- 0.52 pct), and the financial expense rate was 0.33% (- 0.08 pct). The net operating cash flow in 2021 was 971 million (+ 38% compared with the same period last year), mainly due to the company's factoring of accounts receivable. (2) 2022Q1's gross profit margin is 8.22% (year-on-year-2.96 pct, month-on-month + 2.18 pct). The month-on-month increase is mainly due to the gradual landing of the company's agreement with customers at the end of last year.
The supply pattern of the industry has improved, the leader has actively expanded production, and the share is expected to continue to expand. At present, the CR4 of the two-piece can industry has reached 70%. As the industry leader, the company is bound with high-quality customers, and will continue to expand production in the future. with Lanzhou, Malaysia, Anhui, Guizhou, Cambodia and other projects have been put into production, the total production capacity is expected to reach about 16 billion cans by the end of 2022 and further to about 20 billion cans by the end of 2023, and the company's market share will further increase. In addition, the company has launched a stock option incentive plan at the end of 2021, which will help mobilize the enthusiasm of core employees and promote the achievement of the company's business goals.
Profit forecast: according to the financial report to adjust the forecast and the target price, the estimated return net profit from 2022 to 2024 is 3.03 / 4.19 / 523 million yuan, corresponding to PE 24.0 / 17.4 / 13.9x. Maintain a "buy" rating.
Risk tips: raw material costs fluctuate, industry competition intensifies, and epidemic situation repeats.