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江特电机(002176):优质的锂云母龙头 茜坑300万吨成长可期

Jiangte Electric (002176): Qiankeng, the leader of high-quality lithium-mica, can be expected to grow by 3 million tons

太平洋證券 ·  May 5, 2022 00:00  · Researches

Event: according to the company's 2021 annual report & 2022Q1 quarterly report, the company's revenue in 2021 was 2.982 billion yuan, an increase of 61.73% over the same period last year, and the net profit was 386 million yuan, an increase of 2592.71%, an increase of 2592.71%, an increase of 116.06%, a year-on-year increase of 116.06%, and a month-on-month increase of 100.12%. The net profit in 2020 was-7 million yuan. 2022Q1 achieved revenue of 1.355 billion yuan, an increase of 152.57% over the same period last year and 42.24% month-on-month growth. The net profit of 2022Q1 was 666 million yuan, an increase of 809.81 percent over the same period last year and 388.31 percent month-on-month.

Comments:

The volume and price are rising, and the lithium salt business is growing rapidly. In 2021, the company's lithium business revenue was 1.334 billion yuan, an increase of 979.28% over the same period last year. In 2021, the company's lithium salt production was 12778 tons, an increase of 244 percent over the same period last year, and sales volume was 12438 tons, an increase of 23.2 percent over the same period last year. It is estimated that the average selling price of lithium salt in 2021 is about 122,000 yuan / ton (the average price of SMM lithium carbonate is 114,000 yuan / ton, including tax price). The direct material cost of lithium salt is 41600 yuan / ton, and the manufacturing cost is about 152,000 yuan / ton. The total cost per ton is 66300 yuan / ton.

With a capacity of 65000 tons of lithium salt in 2024, the source of raw materials for technical transformation of the production line will be more flexible. At present, the company has two lithium mica lithium carbonate production lines with a total annual production capacity of 15000 tons, a production line with an annual production capacity of 15000 tons of lithium carbonate from spodumene and a production line of 10,000 tons of lithium hydroxide and 5000 tons of lithium carbonate using spodumene (under construction). In April 2022, the company invested in a new lithium salt project with an annual production capacity of 20,000 tons in Yifeng County, Jiangxi Province. It is estimated that the total lithium salt production capacity of the company will reach 65000 tons in 2024. As the company mainly purchases spodumene from the market and does not have a long order, the company is stepping up the lithium mica compatible transformation of the spodumene production line, which is expected to be completed by mid-2023. At that time, the company's raw material procurement will be more flexible, raw material protection will be more adequate.

Xikeng 3 million tons of exploration and mining, the company's growth core drive. In 2021, the company's original mine mining volume was 1.355 million tons, an increase of 91.75 percent over the same period last year, and sales volume was 1.39 million tons, an increase of 66.96 percent over the same period last year, corresponding to about 9000 tons of lithium carbonate. At present, the company has a lithium mica mineral separation capacity of 1.8 million tons / year, of which Shiziling is about 1.2 million tons / year, and Xinfang Tantalum and Niobium Mine is about 600,000 tons / year. In April 2022, the company invested 2 billion yuan to build a new lithium mining and separation project of no less than 3 million tons per year in Tongan Township, Yifeng County, and is expected to be put into production in 2024. The relevant procedures of "exploration and conversion mining" in Xikeng Lithium Mine have been followed by the State Ministry of Natural Resources, and the mining operation can be realized quickly after obtaining the mining certificate. In the future, Jiangte Motor will have a mineral processing capacity of 4.8 million tons / year. Jiangte lithium mica is about 1.5 million tons of raw ore corresponding to 10,000 tons of lithium carbonate, equivalent to about 32000 tons of lithium carbonate, which is the core driving force for the company's future growth.

With 580000 tons of Li2O reserves, Jiangte has a significant advantage in resources. The company has 2 mining rights and 5 exploration rights in lithium porcelain stone mines in Yichun area. according to the statistics of proven mining reserves, the company holds or controls more than 100 million tons of lithium ore resources, large reserves and concentrated lithium mica resources with good mining conditions. Among them, Shiziling lithium porcelain stone Li2O reserves (332-333) 71540 tons, Xikeng lithium ore Li2O reserves (332-333-334) 512200 tons, for the domestic lithium mica leader.

The motor business has improved steadily, and the servo motor has increased significantly. In 2021, the company's motor business achieved revenue of 1.456 billion yuan, down 1.12% from the same period last year, mainly due to a sharp rise in the price of upstream bulk raw materials and a decline in revenue from traditional motors. The company's servo motor, military motor and other market segments have increased significantly, the company will increase the research and development of new industries of high-efficiency and energy-saving motors, and at the same time focus on building a high-end brand of military motors to enhance the core competitiveness of the company's motor products.

Investment advice: be optimistic about the amount of lithium mica in Jiangte Motor. It is estimated that the return net profit of the company from 2022 to 2024 is 380,777,4.373 billion yuan, corresponding to EPS 1.86, 2.04, 2.56 and PE, 9.97, 7.93 times. Cover for the first time, giving a "buy" rating.

Risk tips: risks such as lower-than-expected demand and a sharp fall in lithium prices.

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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