Events:
The company issues the 2021 annual report. In 2021, the company achieved revenue of 47.819 billion yuan, an increase of 28.26% over the same period last year, and a net profit of 2.289 billion yuan, an increase of 22.93% over the same period last year. The company plans to pay a cash dividend of 2.3 yuan (including tax) for every 10 shares.
Main points of investment:
The contribution of wind power business is the largest increment, and the problem of business composition suppresses the gross profit margin. In 2021, the company achieved revenue of 47.8 billion yuan, an increase of 28.26% over the same period last year, which was significantly faster than that of previous years. Among them, the biggest contribution to the revenue increment is the company's wind power equipment business. In 2021, the company's wind turbine sales reached 3.36GW, an increase of 17.84% over the same period last year, and mainly offshore wind power with higher value. Affected by this, the company's renewable energy equipment sector achieved revenue of 15.138 billion yuan, an increase of 50.11% over the same period last year, and a gross profit margin of 14.32% (up 0.06pct). Considering that the gross profit margin of the company's wind power business is lower than that of the rest of the company, the large increase in revenue suppresses the improvement of the company's overall gross profit margin, resulting in a comprehensive gross profit margin of 17.29% (down 3.06 pct). The company has strong technical advantages in large wind turbines, especially in the field of offshore wind power. In February 2022, 13MW wind turbines with the largest unit capacity and the largest impeller diameter in Asia were successfully put off the line. We expect that the company's wind power sector will continue to maintain high revenue growth in the future, while achieving gross profit margin.
The decline in expense rates has pushed up profit margins, and credit impairment has been a drag on performance to some extent. The company's sales, management and financial expense rates in 2021 were 3.05%, 5.83% and 0.08%, respectively, which decreased to a certain extent compared with the same period last year, and the expense rate during the company period decreased by 2.63pct. Benefit from the decline in expense rate, offset some of the impact of the decline in gross profit margin, so that the company's profit margin remains high. At the same time, we found that the credit impairment in 21 years was 200 million yuan, while that in the same period last year involved partial reversal. The resulting differences have been a drag on the company's 2021 annual results to a certain extent.
"the simultaneous development of six power plants and the coordination of the five industries" has greatly optimized the income structure. In 2021, the company achieved revenue growth of 50.11%, 14.66%, 60.33%, 19.28%, 29.80%, respectively, in renewable energy equipment, clean and efficient energy equipment, engineering and trade, modern manufacturing services, and emerging growth industries. In terms of sub-industry, renewable energy equipment accounted for 31.66% of revenue (increased 4.61pct), becoming the company's largest industry for the first time; in terms of power source, wind power equipment accounted for 26.39% of revenue (increased 6.45pct), surpassing thermal power to become the largest power equipment business, and "zero carbon" power generation equipment accounted for more than 60% of the equipment manufacturing sector. The company's revenue structure has been greatly optimized, and the overall business layout is more in line with the 3060 goal.
The growth of orders is steady, and the construction and transformation of the power side under the investment of the new power system is expected to be accelerated. In 2021, the company added 56.392 billion yuan (+ 14.15% yoy) of new orders. Among the new effective orders, clean and efficient energy equipment accounted for 25.81%, renewable energy equipment accounted for 29.40%, engineering and trade accounted for 13.46%, modern manufacturing services accounted for 12.78%, and emerging growth industries accounted for 18.55%. The new type of power will bring a comprehensive upgrade and transformation of the power side, and more power testing investment will be added to solve the consumption problem. The national pumped storage plan was issued in September 2021, requiring the total scale of pumped storage to be more than 6200 kilowatts by 2025 and about 120 million kilowatts by 2030. In October 2021, the state issued the National implementation Plan for the Transformation and upgrading of Coal-fired Power Units, which makes it clear that the scale of coal-saving and consumption-reducing transformation during the 14th five-year Plan period is not less than 350 million kilowatts, and the heating transformation scale strives to reach 50 million kilowatts. The flexibility transformation of the existing coal-fired power units should be changed to complete 200 million kilowatts and increase the system regulation capacity by 3000 million kilowatts. Benefiting from pumped storage construction and coal-fired power transformation, we expect the company's revenue and gross profit from wind power to reverse and accelerate its recovery.
Profit forecast and rating: the construction of the new power system brings new development opportunities to the company. During the 14th five-year Plan period, power construction will continue to be high, thermal power, nuclear power, gas power and wind power installation are expected to continue to improve. Thermal power flexibility transformation and hydropower expansion pumped storage will usher in rapid development. Considering the company's current order reserves, we appropriately reduce the 22-23 year return net profit forecast. The new 24-year homing net profit forecast is expected to be 29.2,36.4 and 4.45 billion yuan respectively from 22 to 24 (30.93,39.34 respectively before the adjustment in 22-23). The current stock price is 13,11 and 9 times of PE, respectively, and continues to maintain the "buy" rating.
Risk hint: the growth rate of new energy development is lower than expected in the short term, and the flexibility transformation of thermal power is not as expected.