(1) the company's 2021 income was 770 million yuan, + 25.8% compared with the same period last year; the net profit was 180 million yuan, + 11.1%; and the non-return net profit was 160 million yuan, + 10.1% compared with the same period last year. The performance is in line with expectations. (2) the 1Q22 income of the company is 83 million yuan,-25.9% compared with the same period last year; the net profit returned to the mother is 1.359 million yuan, which is-91.8% compared with the same period last year; and the non-return net profit is-17 million yuan, which is-110.7% compared with the same period last year. Due to the impact of the epidemic, 1Q22 performance is lower than expected. Looking forward to 2022, the company benefits from the development trend from inside to outside the province, from inspection to operation, and from power grid to rail transit. We are optimistic about the company's growth prospects. Maintain a "buy" rating.
The performance of 4Q21 increased rapidly, and the performance of 1Q22 was affected by the epidemic. (1) 4Q21: due to the interference of epidemic and other factors, the company's new orders and project settlement in 2021 are mainly concentrated in the fourth quarter. In the first three quarters, the company's revenue was-12.3% year-on-year, and its net profit was-59.8% compared with the same period last year. 4Q21, the company's income is 450 million yuan (+ 83.9%) and net profit is 150 million yuan (+ 91.6%). From the perspective of the whole year, the performance growth in the fourth quarter makes up for the decline in the first three quarters, and still achieves positive growth in the whole year. (2) 1Q22: due to the impact of the epidemic in East China, the company's revenue has declined significantly. On the other hand, corporate expenses are more rigid, so the decline in net profit is more obvious. From the past experience of the power robot industry, downstream power grid customers have strict annual order bidding and execution plans. The company's delayed implementation of the 1Q22 business is expected to catch up after the outbreak has eased.
The development of robot business and monitoring equipment business is balanced. The company provides two kinds of intelligent products: robot and monitoring equipment for power grid customers. In 2021, the revenue of robot business / monitoring equipment business reached 260 million / 500 million yuan respectively, which was-27.0% Universe 107.1% compared with the same period last year. The decline in robot business is mainly due to the shift from inspection robots to integrated inspection-operation robots in the industry in 2021, resulting in a decline in inspection robot business. In 2022, we expect the robotics business to return to growth.
Rail robot business 1Q22 achieves an order breakthrough. The company launched the rail crossing line inspection robot and the vehicle bottom inspection robot. The company's rail transit line inspection robot has the advantage of "six in one" and is in a leading position in the market competition. According to our estimation, the market space of rail robot is about 20 billion yuan. In February 2022, the company received the first order for a rail robot. At the same time, many potential orders of the company are also advancing in an orderly manner.
We expect that a small number of rail robot orders will be landed this year, and will gradually realize the large-scale landing of the order next year.
Risk factors: 1. The risk of slowing down the penetration rate of electric power robots; 2. The risk of falling product prices as a result of intensified competition in the industry; 3. The risk that the rail transit robot business is advancing at a slower speed than expected.
Investment suggestion: combined with the 2021 annual report and 1Q22 quarterly report data, we downgrade the company's 2022 PE 23-year return net profit forecast to 2.3 billion yuan (the original forecast is 2510 million yuan), increase the 2024 return net profit forecast of 380 million yuan, the current share price corresponding to PE times 15-11-9. The average historical valuation of the robotics industry is about 30 times, and the company's return net profit is expected to grow by 25% to 30% over the next three years. Taking into account the historical valuation level of the industry, as well as the growth of the company's performance, the company is valued at 30 times PE in 2022, corresponding to the target price of 50 yuan (originally predicted to be 55 yuan), maintaining the "buy" rating.