Event: the company recently released its annual report for 2021 and quarterly report for 2022. The company achieved operating income of 2.54 billion yuan in 2021,-4.71% year-on-year, and net profit of 73.31 million yuan, + 122.61%, deducting 7.3 million yuan of non-return net profit, + 101.52% of the same period last year. Among them, 21Q4 realized operating income of 881 million yuan, year-on-year + 91.61%, net profit of 34.56 million yuan, year-on-year + 109.22%, non-return net profit of 15.2692 million yuan, + 103.27%. The company's 2022Q1 realized operating income of 814 million yuan, + 43.68% compared with the same period last year, and net profit of 20.13 million yuan, + 38.45% compared with the same period last year, deducting 15.5177 million yuan of non-return net profit, + 266.35% year-on-year.
Comments:
The performance of 21Q4 and 22Q1 both reached record highs, and the cash flow of operating activities continued to improve. In 21 years, the company's Q4 achieved revenue of 881 million yuan, year-on-year + 91.61%, net profit of 34.56 million yuan, + 109.22%, deducting non-parent net profit of 15.2692 million yuan, and revenue and profit of + 103.27% pint 21Q4 reached a five-year high. The company's 22Q1 realized operating income of 814 million yuan, + 43.68% year-on-year, and net profit of 20.13 million yuan, + 38.45%, deducting 15.5177 million yuan of non-parent net profit, and revenue and profit of + 266.35% 22Q1 also reached a five-year high, showing a good reversal trend. In terms of cash flow, the cash flow of the company's operating activities continued to improve, with 21Q4 reaching 155 million yuan and 22Q1 reaching 52.9 million yuan, both far exceeding the net profit of homing in the same period.
The gross profit margin and expense rate of 21Q4 and 22Q1 declined at the same time, and the situation of company transformation was obvious. The company's gross profit margin showed a downward trend in the last two quarters, with 21Q4 and 22Q1 at 36.13% and 38.37% respectively, down 14.57pct and 14.47pct respectively from a year earlier. The company actively promotes innovative business such as ODM and OEM, and speculates that the increase in the proportion of innovative business in revenue leads to a decline in gross profit margin.
At the same time, the sales expense rate of 21Q4 and 22Q1 has also dropped from the previous level of 30% + to 23.02% and 25.64%, further verifying the increase in the proportion of innovative business, and the initial results of the company's transformation.
Looking forward to 2022: continue to grasp the stock and promote increment. In 2022, the company will continue to stabilize the basic market of its own brand at a time when the industry is under pressure, increasing market share by providing cost-effective and high-quality milk powder. According to channel research, the sales of Ke Ruixin, the company's key product this year, has exceeded that of the whole of last year as of April this year, with a rapid growth momentum. On the other hand, the company actively expands the increment of innovative business, obtains customers by full marketing, and provides customized services for mother-to-child vertical platform and industrial brands by virtue of the company's strong R & D and production system. This year's increment is expected.
Profit forecast and company rating: the downward space is limited and the upward space is predictable. In 2022, the company will strengthen the basic market in the traditional channel, push Ke Ruixin in the direct supply channel, and harvest orders in the major customer channel, with a clear reversal trend and greater profit flexibility. We estimate that the EPS for 2022-2024 will be 0.15, 0.22, 0.32 yuan, with a growth rate of 128%, 45%, and 45%. At present, the company's stock price and PB are at the bottom of the past five years, and the downward space is limited. We maintain the target stock price of 7.9 yuan and maintain the "buy".
Rating.
Risk factors: food safety problems, intensified competition in the industry.