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金辰股份(603396):毛利率减值拖累业绩 N型电池设备有望突破

Jinchen shares (603396): gross margin impairment drag performance N-type battery equipment is expected to break through

中信建投證券 ·  May 5, 2022 15:56  · Researches

Event

In 2021, ① achieved an operating income of 1.61 billion yuan, an increase of 51.76% over the same period last year, and a net profit of 60.811 million yuan, down 26.34% from the same period last year.

In the first quarter of 2022, ② achieved an operating income of 457 million yuan, an increase of 57.48 percent over the same period last year, and a net profit of 27.9269 million yuan, an increase of 5.55 percent over the same period last year.

Brief comment

2021 performance Review: gross profit margin and credit impairment losses drag the overall performance in 2021 below expectations, including a number of reasons: the decline in ① gross profit margin.

Gross profit margin in 2021 is 30.16%, year-on-year-4.85pct. Among them, the gross profit margin of photovoltaic module equipment and battery equipment was 29.68% and 33.64% respectively, down 4.69pct and 7.73pct from the same period last year, industry competition and rising prices of raw materials are the main reasons. The increase in the rate of ② expenses. The expense rate during 2021 is 19.42%, which is + 1.0pct compared with the same period last year. Among them, the R & D expenditure rate further rose to 8.07%, compared with the same period last year + 1.26pct. The company's R & D expenses increased by 79.78% in 2021 compared with the same period last year, mainly from the trial production of HJT PECVD project prototype. The increase of ③ impairment loss.

In 2021, the company's credit impairment was 59.9622 million yuan, mainly for the provision of bad debts for receivables.

2022Q1 performance review: Q1 revenue achieved high growth, gross profit margin under further pressure 22Q1 although the revenue growth rate of more than 50%, the profit side of the performance is relatively average. 22Q1 gross margin 29.91%, year-on-year-4.79pct; net profit 6.35%, year-on-year-3.59pct. Profitability is lower than expected, and the decline in gross profit margin is the main reason.

Photovoltaic equipment: module automation assembly line and laminating machine leader, active layout of N-type battery module equipment: in the company's existing business composition, it mainly includes photovoltaic module automation production line, laminating machine, electric injection anti-light decay, battery loading and unloading machine and other supporting products, customers include Longji, Tongwei, Dongfang Sunrise, Sunshine Energy and other industry leading enterprises.

HJT battery equipment: cooperate with the Swiss company H2GEMINI to focus on the research and development of new PECVD processes and equipment applied to HJT technology. The company joined hands with Jinneng Technology to ship the first HJT battery PECVD independently developed by the company to Jinneng Technology in June 2021.

At the end of 2021, the average efficiency of the battery produced by the company's HJT PECVD equipment reached 24.38% (open voltage Voc > 745mv, filling factor FF > 84.5%), the convergence of efficiency distribution was very high, and the average efficiency of the optimal batch was 24.55%. In 2022, the company's plans and progress in HJT include: ① microcrystal-based HJT solar cell PECVD equipment has been sent to Jineng Technology, which is expected to be debugged around the middle of the year, with a target conversion efficiency of 25% +. ② "High efficiency Battery & High efficiency component Research and Development Lab" expects that all HJT and TOPCon equipment will be moved in and officially launched in the near future.

TOPCon battery equipment: strategic cooperation with Ningbo Institute of Materials, Chinese Academy of Sciences, through the selection of tubular PECVD to achieve TOPCon "ultra-thin silicon oxide" + "in-situ doping amorphous silicon"

The preparation of. The company is expected to receive orders for TOPCon equipment in 2022.

Investment suggestion

It is estimated that the company's operating income from 2022 to 2024 is 22.33,33.02 and 4.276 billion yuan respectively, an increase of 38.7%, 47.9% and 29.5% respectively over the same period last year. The net profit of 2022-2024 is 1.43,2.14 and 292 million yuan respectively, an increase of 135.6%, 49.4% and 36.5% respectively over the same period last year, and the corresponding PE is 39.0,26.1,19.1 times respectively, maintaining the "buy" rating.

Risk factors.

The risk of rising the price of raw materials; the risk that the demand for expanding production of components is not up to expectation; the progress of research and development of battery equipment is lower than expected.

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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