Event description

In 2021, the company's income / return net profit / deduction of non-return net profit was 5.56 trillion yuan respectively, an increase of 18.83%, 60.02% and 60.58%, respectively. Revenue from excluding masks increased by 28.71% compared with the same period last year. The income / return net profit / deduction of non-return net profit of 2022Q1 is 1.31 billion yuan respectively, an increase of 1.93%, 8.92% and 45.76%, respectively. The performance was lower than expected.

Analysis and judgment:

Under the strength of brand X, the proportion of private brands has reached 25%. In 2021, the revenue from outdoor supplies / outdoor services / masks was 4.81 million yuan, an increase of 28%, 35% and 77%, respectively. The rapid growth of outdoor goods business is mainly due to the growth of revenue from stores and e-commerce: (1) the revenue of stores in 2021 was 282 million yuan, an increase of 29% over the same period last year; by the end of 2021, there were 48 retail stores (including 6 flagship stores / standard stores / boutiques / brand stores / ski shops respectively) and 6 stores opened in 21 years, the number of stores increased by 14% over the same period last year, and the same store is estimated to grow by 13%. In terms of area, the total store area is about 21000 square meters, up 24% from the same period last year, resulting in a 4.72% year-on-year increase in flat efficiency. (2) the transaction volume of self-built platform and third-party sales platform was 221.9 million yuan, an increase of 66% compared with the same period last year. The per capita consumption of trading users reached 270.25 yuan in 2021, and the split volume / price contributed 655% / 78% respectively, mainly due to the decrease in sales on the official website. the number of registered users on the official website was 186300 by the end of 21, an increase of 0.16% over the end of 20. (3) the rapid growth of outdoor services is mainly due to the steady operation of the company on the basis of epidemic prevention requirements, but the suspension of business and the decline of passenger flow due to repeated epidemic situations and floods in Zhengzhou in the second half of the year. In 2021, the company received a total of 608800 visitors to the Squirrel Paradise, an increase of 40% over the same period last year.

XBIONIC revenue has increased significantly. In 2021, the company's own brand income was 120 million yuan, accounting for 25.22%, which was lower than the 150 million yuan planned at the beginning of the year due to the impact of the epidemic. The proportion of clothing / footwear / equipment income was 90%, 6%, 4%, 23.5%, 3271%, 101%, respectively, of which the revenue from X-BIONIC products was 92.65 million yuan, up 130% from the same period last year.

The cost investment will be increased. The company's gross profit margin in 2021 was 50.30%, an increase in 6.87PCT over the same period last year, and an increase in 2.06PCT over 19 years, mainly from a substantial increase in gross profit margin for outdoor products: 52.73% for outdoor products / 36.35% for outdoor services, respectively, an increase of 7.4/6.2PCT over the same period last year. The sharp increase in gross profit margin for outdoor products is mainly due to the relief of the domestic epidemic. The net interest rate in 2021 was-25.23%, the year-on-year increase in 62.73PCT, and the loss was mainly due to increased investment by Brand X: the sales / management / R & D / financial expense rate in 2021 was 31.11%, 14.42%, 1.75%, 1.97%, respectively, and increased 5.19/0.86/-0.6/-0.11PCT over the same period last year. The increase in sales and management expenses is mainly due to the increase in the company's brand marketing investment and the amortization of X-BIONIC-related intangible assets and the increase in employee compensation. Other income was 1 million yuan, down 50.89PCT from the same period last year, mainly due to the reduction of government subsidies.

Inventory is up. 2022Q1's inventory was 253 million yuan, up 3% from the previous month, and the inventory turnover days were 317.80 days, 2.57 days less than the same period last year, and 37.13 days less than in 19 years. The accounts receivable of the company was 29 million yuan, a decrease of 1.50% over the same period last year, and the average turnover days of accounts receivable was 21.41 days, a decrease of 0.28 days over the same period last year.

Investment suggestion

According to our analysis, (1) We expect that after expanding stores and increasing marketing, Brand X is still expected to double its growth. This year, 1-2 new flagship stores, 4-6 franchised stores, and 15 collection stores will be rebuilt. Considering the impact of the epidemic, revenue is expected to reach 200-250 million yuan. (2) the increase in the proportion of own brands will lead to an improvement in profit structure. (3) with the acquisition of Guizhou Yingji, the company is expected to build a comprehensive quality education IP construction of "Squirrel Tribe parent-Child Outdoor Park + Sanfu Little Warrior + Eagle extreme Safety Education Base" in the future. Under the rapid control of the domestic epidemic situation, the Squirrel Paradise project is expected to recover in 2022. Considering the impact of the epidemic, the 2022 revenue forecast is reduced from 718 million yuan to 677 million yuan. Taking into account the accelerated development of brand X in 23, the 23-year revenue forecast is raised from 847 million yuan to 940 million yuan, and the additional 24-year income is estimated to be 1.146 billion yuan. Taking into account the epidemic situation and the impact of increased investment in X costs, the 23-year return net profit forecast for 22max is reduced from 0.56 billion yuan to 0.36 billion yuan. The new 24-year return net profit is estimated to be 71 million yuan, corresponding to the reduction of the 22-year EPS forecast from 0.28 yuan 0.32 yuan to 0.19 yuan 0.38 yuan, the new 24-year EPS forecast to 0.45 yuan, and the closing price of 10.89 yuan on April 29, 2022, corresponding to the estimated PE value of 54ap2823X in 22-23-24, maintaining the "over-holding" rating.

Risk hint

X-BIONIC operation is not as expected; Squirrel Park passenger flow recovery is not expected; offline store expansion is not as expected; systemic risk.