Event: the company released its 2021 annual report, with an operating income of 112.31 billion yuan during the reporting period, an increase of 28.1% over the same period last year, and a net profit of 3.601 billion yuan, down 48.8% from the same period last year.
Steady growth in revenue, regulation and control affect profits under pressure. In 2021, the operating income was 112.31 billion yuan, up 28.1% from the same period last year, and the net profit was 3.601 billion yuan, down 48.8% from the same period last year. The reason for the decline is that: 1) the gross profit margin for settlement decreased from 5.9pct to 17.2% compared with the same period last year; 2) the amount of impairment of assets such as inventory was 2.16 billion yuan, an increase of more than 4 times over the same period last year. 3) the income of joint venture development projects decreased by 509 million yuan compared with 2020, a decrease of 39.1% compared with the same period last year. During the period, the company achieved a gross profit margin of 17.2%, down 6pct from the same period last year; and realized a net profit margin of 3.2%, down 4.8pct from the same period last year. In terms of expense rate, the three fees / revenue during the period was 7.5%, down 0.4pct from the same period last year, sales fees / revenue was 6.9%, 0.6pct was down from the same period last year, and financial expenses / revenue was 0.6%, up 0.1pct from the same period last year.
The scale of sales has declined, and a variety of ways have helped to gain land. During the period, the company realized sales of 184 billion yuan, down 17.6% from the same period last year, recorded a sales rebate of 185.3 billion yuan, with a corresponding sales payback rate of 100.7%; realized a sales area of 1966 million square meters, down 12.2% from the same period last year; and the average sales price was 9359 yuan per flat, down 6.1% from the same period last year. In terms of land acquisition, the company took 9.76 million square meters of land during the period, down 58.7% from the same period last year, of which the proportion of new first-tier and second-and third-tier cities reached 87%, and 56% through multiple ways such as "real estate + commerce", "real estate + industry", collection and mergers and acquisitions. The amount of land was 37.6 billion yuan, down 57.8% from the same period last year. The floor price was 3852 yuan / flat, up 2.1% from the same period last year, the average floor price / sales price was 41.2%, up 3.3 pct from the same period last year, and the land acquisition amount / sales amount was 20.4%, down 19.6pct from the same period last year. During the period, the company's new construction area was 1485 million square meters, down 49.9 percent from the same period last year, completing 51.2 percent of the annual plan; the completed area was 2111 million square meters, an increase of 5.8 percent over the same period last year, and 81.2 percent of the annual plan was completed. In terms of commercial real estate, by the end of 2021, Jinke Commercial has managed 80 projects with an area of 3.07 million square meters, and has formed three mature product lines: Jinke Center, Jinke Aegean Sea and Jinwalk Future Life Center. the annual revenue and EBITDA growth rates are 30% and 32% respectively over the same period last year. In terms of industrial real estate, by the end of the period, 22 cities have been distributed, 28 parks have been developed and managed, with a total area of more than 1300 million square meters, more than 3000 strategic partners, and an annual output value of more than 200 billion yuan. Build and operate benchmark parks such as Changsha Science and Technology New City and Chongqing Liangjiang Health Science and Technology City.
The three red lines are in the yellow position, and the structure of interest-bearing liabilities continues to be optimized. In terms of the three red lines, the company's asset-liability ratio (excluding contract liabilities) was 69.2%, down 0.7 pct from the same period last year; net debt ratio was 69.5%, down 5.6 pct from the same period last year; and the cash short-term debt coverage ratio was 0.88, down 0.41 from the same period last year. By the end of the period, the balance of interest-bearing liabilities decreased by 17.05 billion yuan to 80.61 billion yuan compared with the same period last year, and the scale of interest-bearing liabilities decreased significantly; in terms of the structure of interest-bearing liabilities, banks, non-bank institutions and open market financing balances accounted for 52%, 24.5% and 23.5% respectively, down 1.1pct, down 4.1pct, and rising 5.2pct, respectively, compared with the same period last year, and the structure continued to optimize. In 2021, the company raised 10 times of open market debt (including corporate bonds, ultra-short financing, US dollar bonds, ABS, CMBS) with a total financing size of 11.8 billion yuan. In February this year, the company successfully issued 1.5 billion yuan of corporate bonds with a coupon rate of 8% and a maturity of 4 years, and the financing channels remained open.
Investment advice: maintain the company's buy rating, taking into account the decline in gross profit carried forward under the influence of industry regulation, the company's net profit growth rate in 2022-24 is expected to be 10.1%, 7.7%, 6.0%, respectively, corresponding to 0.74, 0.80, 0.85 yuan in EPS, corresponding to PE6.01/5.58/5.26 times, taking into account the smooth financing channels and low financing costs, take 22 years 10 times PE valuation The target price is 7.43 yuan.
Risk hint: the decline of industry sales boom is higher than expected; the relaxation of policy regulation is not as expected.