Event: the company released its quarterly report for 2022, with operating income of 1.732 billion yuan in the first quarter of 2022, an increase of 5.7% over the same period last year, net profit of 238 million yuan, an increase of 23.34%, and net profit of 203 million yuan, an increase of 6.29% over the same period last year.
Comments:
The epidemic situation and the national standard transformation of formula granule enterprises lead to short-term pressure on performance, and the short-term factors do not change the trend of "both quantity and price" of formula granules.
Affected by the epidemic, the company's Q1 business sales and promotion in 2022 are under pressure; at the same time, the conversion of formula particles to the national standard also affects the company's short-term production and sales of formula particles. Under such conditions, the revenue side and profit side of Q1 company will maintain steady growth in 2022. In 2022, Q1 realized revenue of 1.732 billion yuan, an increase of 5.7% over the same period last year; net profit deducted from non-return was 203 million yuan, an increase of 6.29% over the same period last year; and net profit of return to home was 238 million yuan, an increase of 23.34% over the same period last year. The growth rate of Q1 revenue and non-home net profit in 2022 is basically the same, while the faster growth of home net profit compared with the same period last year (+ 23%) is mainly due to the substantial increase in government subsidies and investment income. At the level of government subsidies, in 2022, due to a substantial increase in government subsidies, other income increased by 233.82% compared with the same period last year, and the company confirmed that other income reached 20.7705 million yuan; at the same time, non-operating income of Q1 increased by 1149.08% in 2022 compared with the same period last year, and non-operating income was confirmed to be 27.2092 million yuan. In terms of investment income, the investment income was simultaneously recognized as a result of the company's transfer of shares in the associated enterprise Hefei Voltaire, resulting in an increase of 3323.06% over the same period last year, and Q1 confirmed an investment income of 1.2866 million yuan in 2022. We believe that the impact of epidemic factors is gradually declining, the company is steadily promoting the filing of formula particles, gradually promoting the development of grass-roots medical institutions, and the price increase of superimposed formula particles is going smoothly. The formula granule business shows a trend of "simultaneous increase in quantity and price". At the same time, Xuebijing is the only national second-class new drug approved by the State Drug Administration to treat sepsis, multiple organ dysfunction syndrome and severe and critical COVID-19. Xuebijing still has a lot of room for growth in the future. It is expected that with the reduction of the impact of the epidemic, future performance is expected to continue the trend of rapid growth.
Profit forecast: we forecast that the company's revenue from 2022 to 2024 will reach 9.079 billion, 11.404 billion and 14.174 billion respectively, corresponding to an increase of 18.36%, 25.61% and 24.29% compared with the same period last year; the net profit of homing mother will be 905 million, 1.423 billion and 1.833 billion respectively, and the corresponding EPS will be 0.3,0.47 and 0.61 yuan respectively. As of April 29, 2022, the company's share price was 5.78 yuan per share, corresponding to the 2022-2024 PE valuation of 19 times, 12 times, 9 times, respectively, maintaining the company's "highly recommended" investment rating.
Risk tips: the risk of market expansion of formula particles, the hindrance of price increase of formula particles, the risk of excessive decline in the price of medical devices, and the sales of proprietary Chinese medicine and other products do not meet expectations.