This report is read as follows:
Residents' expansion table is difficult to hedge against housing contraction tables, real estate is difficult to help this round of credit expansion, the layout of asset shortage opportunities, while Financial Street holds high-quality office buildings in core cities, facing large financial clients with strong anti-risk ability, value revaluation is just around the corner.
Main points of investment:
Raise to increase the holding rating, raise the target price to 11.87 yuan. The recent divestiture of inefficient self-owned properties to confirm the investment income, raised the profit forecast for 2022-2024 to 0.600.73 plus 0.88 yuan (originally 0.55 0.70 plus 0.87 yuan). During the period of asset shortage, the company will usher in a revaluation. Based on the valuation of NAV, EVA and PB, the reasonable valuation is 35.5 billion yuan, corresponding to the target price of 11.87 yuan.
It is difficult for residents to expand the list to hedge against the housing contraction table, and the hindrance of wide credit leads to a shortage of assets. Only by expanding the list of housing enterprises can we drive the real estate cycle, while the residents just follow. Unlike in the past, the current housing enterprises have shifted from table expansion to shrinking tables, and the recovery of the industry will not be as expected. At the same time, the absence of credit will show a wide currency and it will be difficult to extend credit. The absence of shadow banks will aggravate the asset shortage, and physical assets that stabilize cash flow will benefit.
The company holds high-quality office buildings in core cities, with a stable cash flow of 1.7 billion per year, which is the best choice of assets, while high-level urban land reserves contribute to the bottom of the value. 1) 47% of the leased property is located in Beijing, 70% of the rental income comes from office buildings, and the tenants are risk-resistant financial customers. The rent grew at an annualized rate of 17% from 2010 to 2019, and the gross profit margin remained high at 90%. In the past two years, there are nearly 250,000 square meters of new self-cultivation properties and nearly 300,000 square meters of reserve properties, and the rent is expected to increase by 8% in the next five years. 2) 38000 / par of investment real estate is undervalued, and the potential appreciation of revaluation or transfer reaches 6.4 billion. 3) the development business has 1651 million square meters of land storage in the core 15 cities, the elimination period is 9.4 years, and the annual sales scale of 35 billion is guaranteed. If the market recovers, it will still be highly flexible.
Catalyst: historically, companies have resisted declines in real estate and led gains in times of asset crunch. It is expected that macro-level real estate sales and investment are still weak, social finance data are lower than expected; micro-level financial street rental income back to the rising channel or the transfer of assets increased.
Risk tips: the opening of shadow banking, return to the old path of land finance; the epidemic is out of control and rents are falling.