Event description
The company released the 2021 annual report and the first quarterly report of 2022, with revenue of 112.31 billion (+ 28.1%), net profit of 3.6 billion (- 48.8%), net profit of 2.87 billion (- 53.6%), revenue of 12.67 billion (+ 2.2%), net profit of-290 million (- 164.0%) and net profit of-630 million (- 253.7%) in 2021.
Event comment
The gross profit margin of development goes down with the trend of the industry, and the large provision for impairment leads to lower-than-expected performance. In 2021, the actual completed area of the company was + 5.8% compared with the same period last year, the amount of delivery and settlement increased, and the average price of overlay settlement also rose compared with the same period last year, driving annual revenue still + 28.1% compared with the same period last year. However, due to the downward trend of the development and settlement gross profit margin (from-5.9pct to 17.2% compared with the same period last year), as well as the larger provision for impairment (2.23 billion for the whole year, affecting 1.91 billion of net profit), and the decline in the contribution of investment income of joint ventures, the company's parent net profit decreased by 48.8% compared with the same period last year. 2022Q1's revenue increased slightly by 2.2%, and its parent net profit suffered a loss, but the profit of its own development industry in the first quarter was limited (the Q1 performance of most real estate companies accounted for less than 10% of the whole year), and was greatly affected by the settlement structure, so there was no need for over-interpretation. Looking forward to the whole year, the high increase in sales in previous years still has a strong support for completion delivery, and the downward space of settlement profit margin is limited again. By the end of 2021, the company's pre-receipt / settlement income reached 1.2X, and the performance outlook is still relatively sound.
The scale of sales has declined, investment is still conservative but resources on hand are still relatively abundant. In 2021, although the sales scale declined compared with the same period last year, the sales amount / area / average price was-17.6% Mather 12.2% Mather 6.1% respectively, but the recovery money was very effective, with 185.3 billion of the annual sales rebate, and the payback rate of 101% Xing 2022Q1 was in line with the industry trend, and the company's sales volume decreased by about 57% compared with the same period last year. Under the background of tight capital in the industry, the company attaches importance to the safety of cash flow, and the investment tends to be prudent. In 2021, the amount of land construction / land acquisition increased by-58.7% / 57.9% respectively compared with the same period last year, land area / sales area = 49.6% (- 55.9pct), land amount / sales amount = 20.4% (- 19.5pct). Attach importance to diversified land acquisition and investment city energy levels. 56% of the new extension's capacity area in 2021 comes from diversified acquisition, and 87% are located in second-and third-tier (including new first-tier) cities. Although the company's investment last year was relatively conservative, the salable resources were still about 6591 million square meters at the end of last year, laying a solid foundation for the company's future sales.
Reduce the debt and optimize the financial structure, and the coordinated development of diversified business. The company adheres to the strategy of "one stable, two declines and three promotions" and insists on reducing debt and adjusting structure. As of the end of 2021, the interest-bearing liability was 80.6 billion yuan, nearly 17 billion yuan lower than the pressure at the beginning of last year; the year-end net debt ratio / asset-liability ratio excluding pre-received assets and liabilities were 69.5%, 69.2%, respectively, compared with the same period last year-5.6/-0.7pct. The cash-to-debt ratio has declined to a certain extent, and the short-term capital pressure is inevitable, but the acceleration of the maintenance of local policy stability and the optimization of the supervision of pre-sale funds also provide repair opportunities; in addition, the overall scale of the company's maturing public debt in subsequent months is controllable and evenly distributed, and the overall capital security is still relatively guaranteed. The company actively promotes the development of diversified business, Jinke service in the management and contract area of 2.4, 360 million square meters respectively, commerce, industrial park, agent construction and other maintain a good development trend.
The performance outlook is relatively robust and continues to pay attention to potential opportunities for credit repair. In the past, the high increase in sales will still be reflected on the settlement side, and the profit margin will decline again, and the company's subsequent performance outlook is stable; sales investment will go down with the industry trend, but the resources on hand are still abundant, and it is expected to seize the good opportunity for the follow-up industry to pick up; although short-term financial pressure is inevitable, the acceleration of local policy stability and the optimization of pre-sale fund supervision also provide potential credit repair opportunities. It is estimated that the company's return net profit from 2022 to 2024 will be 3.76 million, 4.43 billion, respectively, corresponding to a PE of 6.3, 6.0 and 5.4X, respectively, maintaining a "buy" rating.
Risk hint
1. Capital chain and credit repair are facing uncertainty.
2. There is some uncertainty in the repair time of gross profit margin.