Event: Baosteel Packaging released its 2021 annual report and 2022 first quarterly report. In 2021, the company achieved operating income of 6.968 billion yuan, an increase of 20.44% over the same period last year, a net profit of 270 million yuan, an increase of 70.49% over the same period last year, and a net profit of 265 million yuan, an increase of 66.88% over the same period last year.
Among them, 2021Q4 achieved operating income of 2.014 billion yuan in the current quarter, an increase of 21.57% over the same period last year; net profit of 67 million yuan, an increase of 464.76%; and net profit of 66 million yuan, an increase of 686.75% over the same period last year.
In addition, 2022Q1 achieved operating income of 1.853 billion yuan, an increase of 22.18% over the same period last year; net profit of 64 million yuan, down 21.24%; and net profit of 62 million yuan, down 21.57% from the same period last year.
Optimize the layout of production capacity, and the income in 21 will slightly exceed expectations.
The company continues to optimize product structure and capacity layout, actively promote the integrated structure, strengthen regional coordination, and improve the efficiency of production and operation. In terms of research and development, the company has completed a number of technology application research, such as film-coated iron forming, digital printing and molding of flat metal packaging materials, and holds 121 patents by the end of the 21st year. In 2021, the company's performance slightly exceeded expectations, with revenue of 6.968 billion yuan, an increase of 20.44% over the same period last year. In order to be close to customers, the company has set up production bases in the east, south, north, central and west, and has formed a production capacity layout covering the economically active areas of the country. According to the category, the income of metal beverage cans and packaging color printing iron in 2021 was 59.17 / 1.031 billion yuan respectively, an increase of 28.59% over the same period last year. The output of metal beverage cans and packaging color printing iron was 134.79 billion cans and 163700 tons respectively, up 18.06% and 10.76% respectively over the same period last year; and sales were 133.12 billion cans and 165600 tons respectively, up 19.95% and 14.76% over the same period last year.
From a sub-regional point of view, 1) in terms of domestic sales, optimizing the industrial structure and production capacity layout driven domestic business growth, with sales revenue reaching 5.704 billion yuan in 2021, an increase of 32.12% over the same period last year. 2) in terms of export, the company has actively expanded its overseas business, established a long-term and stable strategic partnership with core users in Southeast Asia, Europe and the United States, made steady progress in production and operation under the influence of the epidemic, and promoted the implementation of new projects. In 2021, export revenue reached 1.244 billion yuan, an increase of 6.52 percent over the same period last year.
The rise in raw materials has put short-term pressure on 22Q1 profits, and the cash flow situation is better affected by soaring commodity prices, large fluctuations in upstream raw material prices and other factors. The company's comprehensive gross profit margin for 21 years was 9.51%, down 1.07% from the same period last year. 2022Q1 company's comprehensive gross profit margin was 8.22%, down 2.97pct from the same period last year.
The cost of the company is better controlled. The expense rate during the 21-year period of the company was 4.75%, which was lower than the same period last year (0.31pct). The sales / management / R & D / financial expense rates were 0.81%, 2.89%, 0.73% and 0.33%, respectively, compared with the same period last year. The increase in the rate of management expenses was mainly due to the increase in the salary of employees compared with the previous year. The expense rate of 2022Q1 during the period was 3.49%, a decrease of 0.82pct compared with the same period last year. Under the combined influence, the 21-year net interest rate of the company was 3.88%, an increase of 1.14pct over the same period last year, mainly due to the reduction of asset impairment losses; the net interest rate of 2022Q1 company was 3.46%, down 1.91pct from the same period last year.
In terms of cash flow, the company achieved a net operating cash flow of 971 million yuan in 21 years, an increase of 37.85% over the same period last year, mainly due to the fact that the company carried out factoring of accounts receivable without recourse.
Investment advice: as a leader in metal packaging, the company continues to optimize product structure and capacity layout, early equity incentives demonstrate confidence in development, performance is expected to continue to grow steadily. We estimate that the operating income of Baosteel Packaging will be 79.38,91.44 and 10.417 billion yuan from 2022 to 2024, up 13.92%, 15.19% and 13.92% over the same period last year, and the net profit will be 4.85,5.65 and 647 million yuan respectively, up 79.33%, 16.47% and 14.48% over the same period last year, corresponding to the PE of 13.6x, 11.7x and 10.2x.
Risk tips: repeated risk of global epidemic; risk of fluctuation of raw material prices; risk that demand is less than expected, etc.