This report is read as follows:
The company's quarterly results in 2021 and 2022 are in line with expectations. The company's steel pipe output has been released steadily and its profitability has increased steadily. The company's cost-side pressure may gradually ease in 2022, and the company's performance will be released gradually.
Main points of investment:
Maintain the "overweight" rating. In 2021, the company achieved revenue of 70.43 yuan and 1.362 billion yuan respectively, up 37.84% and 11.72% respectively over the same period last year; and realized net profit of 3.86 yuan and 48 million yuan respectively, down 33.99% and 38.2% respectively over the same period last year. The company's 2022Q1 performance was slightly lower than expected. Taking into account the rising commodity prices and the impact of the epidemic, the downward revision of the company's EPS forecast for 2022-23 is 0.79max 0.91 (the original 0.88max 1.17 yuan), and the new 2024 EPS forecast is 1.0RMB, corresponding to the 2022-24 homing net profit of 4.11max 473max 522 million. Maintain the target price of 13.2 yuan and maintain the "overweight" rating.
Production is increasing year by year, and the new capacity will be gradually released. In 2021, the company sold 1.1015 million tons of steel pipe, an increase of 118500 tons over 2020. over the past five years, the company's steel pipe sales have increased by 286400 tons, with a compound growth rate of 7.82%. The company has steadily increased its production capacity. At present, the project of "30, 000 tons of high-quality thin-walled stainless steel pipe fittings" and "600000 tons of high-quality welded pipes and factory prefabricated deep-processed pipe fittings" is being actively promoted, and we expect that the company's output will continue to increase in the future.
The brand strength is strong, the cost transfer ability is outstanding. In 2021, the price and cost of steel pipe per ton are 6394 and 5618 yuan respectively, up 1196 yuan and 1178 yuan per ton respectively over the same period last year. The company has strong brand strength and outstanding cost transfer ability. In 2021, the company's gross profit and net profit per ton of steel pipe were 777 yuan and 350 yuan respectively, up 11 yuan / ton and down 244 yuan / ton respectively over the same period last year. In 21 years, the company's net profit per ton of steel pipe increased by 27 yuan / ton compared with the average value of 2017-20 (disturbance of large asset disposal income in 2020), and the upward trend of net profit per ton of steel pipe continued. We expect that through continuous lean management, the company's profitability will gradually increase.
The demand for oil and gas pipelines may gradually pick up. Under the background of the rising price of crude oil and the accelerated construction of China's energy pipe network, we expect that China's oil and gas investment will pick up and the downstream demand of the company may accelerate.
Risk hint: the production progress of the new production capacity is not as expected, and the COVID-19 epidemic is more than expected.