On April 27, the company announced that 2022Q1 achieved an operating income of 8.18 billion yuan (+ 18.7%), a net profit of-100 million yuan (270 million yuan in the same period last year), and a net profit of 120 million yuan in the same period last year (270 million yuan in the same period last year).
Event comment
The structure of settlement resources affects the improvement of gross profit margin, and the profit and loss growth of minority shareholders is a drag on homing performance. 2022Q1 achieved revenue of 8.18 billion (+ 18.7%). Settlement resource structure factors led to an increase in comprehensive gross profit margin to 36.9% (+ 6.6pct), net profit of 790 million yuan (+ 61.6%), but net profit of-100 million yuan (270 million yuan in the same period last year), mainly due to a substantial increase in minority shareholders' profits and losses by 304.5% to 890 million yuan. In addition, tax and surcharge rates, period expense rates increased by 0.4pct, 1.1pct to 5.2%, 13.3% respectively compared with the same period last year, which also caused a certain drag on performance. As of 35.39 billion yuan (- 10.9%) of 2022Q1's accounts received in advance, 2022Q1's accounts received in advance / 2021 settlement income = 99.3%, which can ensure the settlement of this year's performance.
With abundant land reserves and greater sales flexibility after the market recovers, businesses continue to make light efforts to expand assets. According to Carey data, 2022Q1 has a sales volume of 11.54 billion (- 12.3%), a sales area of 427,000 square meters (- 27.3%), and an average sales price of 27026 yuan per square meter (+ 20.5%). By the end of 2021, the company has a sales value of 223 billion yuan and a sales period of about 3.1 years. The company strives to achieve sales of 80 billion yuan (+ 10.0%) by 2022, and abundant land reserves may effectively guarantee the recovery of market demand to meet the sales target of 80 billion. By the end of 2021, the company has opened a total of 18 shopping malls (including light assets, 15 Dayue City + 3 Spring breeze), with a commercial area of 272.8 million square meters. By the end of 2021, 20 shopping malls and other non-standard commercial projects will be reserved, with a commercial area of 178.8 million square meters, ensuring the scale of commercial opening in the later period. The company continues to expand light asset projects, landing 7 light asset projects in 2021 (5 cooperation agreements have been signed + 2 contracts to be signed), 4 light asset projects have been opened by the end of 2021, and 6 light asset projects have been signed waiting for opening. Plans to continue to expand 7 in 2022.
Debt structure optimization, three red line indicators into the "green" for the first time. 2022Q1's interest-bearing debt is 70.81 billion (- 2.3%), short-term debt accounts for 19.4% (- 6.1pct), the debt scale is lower than the same period last year, and the debt structure is optimized. 2022Q1's net debt ratio is 88.7% (+ 3.8pct), cash short-debt ratio is 1.7X (excluding restricted funds), and the asset-liability ratio excluding accounts received in advance is 69.7% (- 2.3pct). The three red line indicators have entered the "green range" for the first time.
Investment advice: the three red line indicators enter the "green file" for the first time, paying attention to the late value release. The impact of the company's early high-priced land on the settlement performance is expected to be gradually digested. With the steady growth of the property held in the later stage and the settlement of the high-quality land taken under the dual-platform mode, the company's performance may continue to be repaired smoothly. It is predicted that the net profit from mother to mother in 2022-2024 will be 7.9 trillion, and the performance growth rate in 2022-2024 will be 372%, 55% and 28%, corresponding to a "holding increase" rating of 33 gamma, 21 gamble, 17X.
Risk hint
1. The pace of industry policy easing is not as fast as expected.
2. The progress of digestion at a high price in the early stage is not as expected.