Core ideas:
2022Q1 national wind resources have declined compared with the same period last year, and the company's Q1 performance has dropped by 21% compared with the same period last year. The company's 2022Q1 achieved operating income of 10.422 billion yuan (adjusted year-on-year + 5.83%) and net profit of 2.254 billion yuan (adjusted year-on-year-21.33%). From the revenue side, due to the strong high base of wind resources in 2021, the number of wind power utilization hours in Q1 dropped to 555 hours this year (65 hours /-10.5% less than the same period last year). At the same time, in terms of cost, the company's installed scale expansion, depreciation and amortization increase, Q1 investment income loss of 94 million yuan, provision for asset impairment of 57 million yuan and other short-term factors.
The growth rate of the company's electricity generation is picking up month by month, and the effectiveness of the digital management platform is prominent. At the beginning of 2022, wind resources were weak, and wind power generation decreased by 17.28% in January compared with the same period last year. Wind resources improved in February, while wind power generation in March increased by 6.51% in March compared with the same period last year. 27.82% in March, the company completed a total of 15.14 billion kilowatt-hours in the first quarter, + 5.13% year-on-year (partly due to a 5.52% increase in wind power installation in the second half of 2021). In addition, the company's digital management platform to improve the reliability of equipment, wind power utilization hours reached 2366 hours in 2021, 134 hours higher than the industry average.
Abundant reserves and smooth financing will ensure the rapid growth of installed capacity during the 14th five-year Plan period. According to the company's plan, 30GW will be installed in the 14th five-year Plan. The group's 2GW wind power assets were consolidated in January. At present, the total installed capacity of the company exceeds 28.7GW, and the group has promised that there will still be wind power assets exceeding 20GW in the next 3 years. In 2021, new reserve resources 56.5GW, development indicators 18.4GW, abundant project reserves, construction is expected to speed up. Considering the smooth financing channels for listing in both places and the expected accelerated recovery of 33.9 billion yuan of receivables, it will provide sufficient funds for installation growth.
Profit forecast and investment advice. It is estimated that the net profit of the company in 2022-2024 is 79.46,95.74 and 11.661 billion yuan respectively, and the PE corresponding to the latest closing price is 21.88,18.16,14.91 times respectively. The company as the leader of wind power, endogenesis and epitaxy promote the rapid growth of installed capacity. With reference to the interbank valuation level, it will be given 30 times PE in 2022, corresponding to the fair value of 28.44 yuan per share, and with reference to the premium ratio of AH shares, corresponding to the reasonable value of HK $21.93 per share of H shares, maintaining the "buy" rating.
Risk hint. The growth of installed capacity is not as expected; the rate of abandoning wind and light; and the competitive price of grid electricity is not as expected.