The company will release its first quarterly report for 2022 on the evening of April 28, 2022. During the reporting period, the company achieved operating income of 656 million yuan, an increase of 51.27% over the same period last year, and net profit of 38.62 million yuan, an increase of 20.09% over the same period last year.
Support the main points of rating
The number of PCV13 batches continued to grow, leading the company to further increase sales. 2022Q1, the company's PCV13 has been approved and issued 208.57 million doses. An increase of 26.92% over the same period last year. In 2021, PCV13 contributed about 2.746 billion yuan in revenue to the company. We expect PCV13 domestic sales to continue to grow rapidly in 2022, while superimposing the 2 million agent cooperation agreement exported to Morocco, this blockbuster variety will lead to more performance. The company's traditional varieties are affected by the WHO-PQ production transformation, and the batch signing quantity has declined obviously. According to the plan, the PQ transformation should have been basically completed and waiting for acceptance. The batch distribution volume and sales volume are expected to recover gradually in the future.
There has been a substantial increase in R & D and sales expenses. The company's 2022Q1 R & D expenditure is about 139 million yuan, an increase of 169.71% over the same period last year. The company has a high proportion of R & D investment, after the company's 2021 annual report revealed that capitalized R & D expenditure accounted for only 17.56%, releasing the pressure on R & D expenditure ahead of time. The company's mRNA COVID-19 vaccine pipeline has entered the end of the clinical III phase and is carrying out data cleaning work, waiting to be blinded. 2022Q1, the company's sales expenses are about 257 million yuan, an increase of 63.57% over the same period last year. The company said it was mainly due to an increase in promotion expenses.
HPV2 has entered the production stage, the heavyweight variety is worth looking forward to. Subsidiary HPV2 was approved to be listed on the market in March 2022, priced at 319 yuan / 329 yuan, suitable for women aged 9-30 years old, with 3 injections of standard vaccination procedure. HPV vaccine is one of the most popular vaccines in China and WHO, which can significantly reduce the risk of cervical cancer in women.
At present, the manufacturers that have been approved to market HPV vaccine in China are only Wantai Biological and Watson Biological.
The R & D pipeline is rich and can be looked forward to in the future. There are 4 COVID-19-related products in the company's clinical R & D pipeline: mRNA vaccine, chimpanzee virus vector vaccine, recombinant protein vaccine, recombinant protein mutant vaccine. And tetravalent meningococcal conjugate vaccine, HPV9, tetravalent influenza vaccine, tetravalent vaccine, EV71.
Valuation
We maintain our previous profit forecast and forecast that the company will achieve operating income of 5.635 billion yuan, 6.864 billion yuan and 8.255 billion yuan and net profit of 1.307 billion yuan, 2.048 billion yuan and 2.534 billion yuan respectively from 2022 to 2024 without considering COVID-19 vaccine.
Main risks faced by rating
Research and development is not as expected, regulatory risks are approved, sales are not as expected, and the epidemic situation is changing.