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疫情以来首度回归线下!本次巴菲特股东大会将有何亮点?

Back offline for the first time since the pandemic! What are the highlights of this Buffett shareholders' meeting?

富途資訊 ·  Apr 29, 2022 17:07  · Editors' Picks

On April 29, 2022 (Beijing time, April 30), the annual global investment feast-Buffett shareholders' meeting, that is, Berkshire Hathaway shareholders' meeting, will arrive as expected.

Buffett, 92, and Munger, 98, reappeared, along with Berkshire executives Greg Abel and Ajit Jain, who are seen as Buffett's "potential successors".

It is worth mentioning that this shareholders' meeting is the first time that it has returned offline since the special period, and its attention will obviously be particularly high!

In addition, compared with the online shareholders' meetings in the past two years, the investor question and answer time arranged by shareholders this year will be longer, which means that this year's "practical information" may be particularly rich.

Half a month ago, Buffett also specifically mentioned in an interview that many topics will be discussed at this year's Berkshire annual shareholders' meeting, reflecting that the "god of shares" himself is also full of expectations for this meeting. Among them, the most worthy of investors' attention, there may be the following topics.

Including: Berkshire's investment plan in the stock market this year, who will be Buffett's successor, how will Buffett evaluate the investment of Apple Inc and Hewlett-Packard, and how to deal with this year's complex investment environment?

Let's take an inventory together!

Berkshire's investment plan in the stock market this year

"I am afraid of other people's greed, and others are afraid of my greed. This famous saying, which is familiar to almost all Buffett followers, is still Buffett's investment rule today.

This year, while the overall decline in U. S. stocks continues, Buffett has made a series of big investments: first about $7 billion in Western oil companies, then $4 billion to buy 121 million HP shares. In addition, it struck a $11.6 billion acquisition of insurance company Alleghany, Buffett's biggest acquisition in six years.

Wall Street analysts expect Berkshire Hathaway to continue to do well in the market this year and next, investing more than $33 billion in stocks over the next 18 months.

Sha James Shanahan, a senior equity analyst at Edward Jones, expects Berkshire Hathaway to strike at least two more deals next year. One is that Berkshire Hathaway may spend about $4 billion to increase its stake in Pilot Flying J to 80% by early 2023; the other is that the company may soon acquire the 8% stake in Berkshire Hathaway held by the Walter Scott Jr. Family, which will bring its stake to more than 99%.

On that basis, Buffett is likely to spend more than $33 billion on stocks over the next 18 months. By contrast, Buffett did little in the stock market last year, investing only $8 billion (excluding buying back his own shares).

By the end of 2021, Berkshire had $144 billion in cash on its books. And whether the "stock god" intends to use this huge amount of money to "buy" this year is worthy of investors' expectation.

Who will be Buffett's successor

Buffett is 91 years old, and discussions about his retirement plans and successors have become a "resident topic" at every shareholder meeting over the past few years.

But in the past two years, it has become increasingly clear who will succeed him: Greg Abel, vice-chairman of Berkshire's non-insurance business.

In an interview, Buffett revealed that the directors agreed that if I left office, Abel, vice chairman of Berkshire's non-insurance business, would take over as CEO. Abel has accompanied Buffett to answer investor questions at online shareholder meetings over the past two years, and this year is no exception.

In addition, a letter to shareholders signed by Abel appeared in the appendix to Berkshire's 2021 annual report, which is the first time that a signed letter other than Buffett has appeared in Berkshire's annual report, which is enough to indicate that Abel or Buffett's successor.

Third, how will Buffett evaluate the investment of Apple Inc and HP

For specific investment targets, Apple Inc and Hewlett-Packard may be the focus of this conference.

First of all, Apple Inc Company.This year is the seventh year that Buffett has held hands with Apple Inc since Berkshire Hathaway first bought Apple Inc shares in 2016. Today, Apple Inc has the highest shareholding in Berkshire's portfolio, with a position of more than 40 per cent.

How will Buffett evaluate Apple Inc, or the focus of this shareholders' meeting?

Second, Hewlett-Packard.Buffett recently invested about $4 billion a month in another technology hardware company, Hewlett-Packard. As of the latest, Berkshire has nearly 121 million shares in Hewlett-Packard, equivalent to about 11% of the shares, making it HP's largest shareholder.

It is worth noting that when Buffett went on a buying spree in the first quarter of this year, Hewlett-Packard shares were already at a nearly decade high. In addition, Hewlett-Packard itself does not have Apple Inc's current historical profitability, and it continues to face competition from Lenovo and other strong competitors in the industry, and does not occupy a dominant position like Apple Inc. Will Buffett's investment think that it still has great potential for growth in the future? This answer will also be known at the shareholders' meeting.

Fourth, how to deal with the complex investment environment this year?

At a time when the impact of COVID-19 's epidemic has not dissipated, the world also faces many risks this year, such as inflation, tightening of monetary policy by global central banks, and disputes over the geopolitical situation between Russia and Ukraine. Buffett's every move is particularly noteworthy for this year's particularly complex investment environment.

Looking back at history, Buffett has performed perfectly in every big bear market:

In 1973, during the first oil crisis, Buffett made a yield of 5%, while the S & P 500 fell 13% over the same period. The following year, the S & P 500 continued to plunge by-20%, while Buffett still made a positive gain of 6%.

In 1977, during the second oil crisis, the S & P 500 fell 8%, and Buffett achieved an amazing performance of 32%.

In 1981, when global inflation soared out of control, Federal Reserve Paul Volcker adopted "shock therapy" to curb inflation, raising interest rates to a record 21%, which sent the S & P 500 down 7%. Over the same period, Buffett's yield was as high as 31.8%.

In addition, the "stock god" made a large number of bottoms when the Internet bubble burst in 2000, and bought a large number of preferred shares such as General Electric Co and Goldman Sachs Group during the subprime mortgage crisis in 2008, which also became a classic case of perfect bottoming in the market crisis.

I have to say that there are striking similarities between today's market environment and the past rounds of big bear markets. In such an environment, the "stock god", who has a perfect record in a bear market for many years, is particularly looking forward to his views on the future investment direction and strategy.

How to make money with Buffett?

Seeing this, I believe many friends are looking forward to this year's Buffett shareholders' meeting and thinking of making money together with Buffett. So, where can we see Buffett's position? And the latest information about Berkshire Hathaway run by Buffett?

In this regard, Futu Securities product moomoo is a very popular app in the recent investment circle, which provides professional investment tools and real-time market, which is very suitable for busy office workers.

Using moomoo app, you only need to take "three steps" to get the latest investment information about Buffett's position.

The first step is to open moomoo app and click the search function.

The second step is to enter Buffett's position code BK2999 in the search box.

The third step, go to Buffett's position page, you can directly see the latest information of Buffett's position!

After reading the above steps, do you feel that this APP is very convenient and fast? Before Buffett's shareholders' meeting is held, let's download moomoo APP quickly.

Edit: sabrina

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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