Items:
The company publishes the 2021 annual report and the first quarterly report of 2022:
1) Revenue: 4Q21 37.2 billion yuan /-26%, full year 158.4 billion yuan / + 0% meme 1Q22351 billion yuan /-17% 2) Gross profit margin: 4Q21 8.3%/+2.0pp, full year 9.0% q22 10.7% pedigree 1.9ppmit3) Expenditure rate: 4Q21 6.9%/+1.4pp, annual expense rate: 4Q21 6.9%/+1.4pp, full year 6.6% Universe 0.1ppPenol 1Q22 7.1%/+0.9pp 4) return to the mother net profit: 4Q21-20 million yuan / loss, annual 1.61 billion yuan / + 6% mine1Q22 670 million yuan / + 2%.
Comments:
Affected by chips and epidemics in 2021, new car sales declined but profits increased. There is a shortage of automotive chips in 2021, and the industry inventory coefficient has been lower than 1.5 since 5M21 (Circulation Association), which has a great impact on the 2H21 reserve impulse of downstream middle-end brand dealers. In addition, the epidemic in the central and western regions in 2021 also affected the sales pace of the industry. Affected by the above, the company sold 697000 new cars in 2021,-7% year-on-year, and the overall revenue was the same as the same period last year. On the other hand, dealers in the industry have also reduced the impact of the decline in sales volume by reducing preferential discounts, which have been reduced by about 8000 yuan (GAIN price index) since the industry 2H21. The company's gross profit margin for new cars is 3.1% for the whole year, which is + 0.9pp compared with the same period last year, driving up the overall profitability and realizing the growth of net profit for the whole year.
The operation of 1Q22 is stable, and 2Q22 is expected to be affected by the epidemic obviously. The lack of core in the company's 1Q22 has eased, the decline in revenue has narrowed, and net profit has shown strong year-on-year growth. However, the 3M22 COVID-19 epidemic occurred in some provinces and cities in China, and strict epidemic prevention measures were taken in Jilin, Shanghai, Jiangsu, Zhejiang and other places in the last ten days. Due to the closure of terminal retail stores in some provinces and cities, about 40% of car sales in April are expected to be affected. In the follow-up, depending on the development of the epidemic, the resumption of work and the recovery of logistics supply, the company's 2Q22 operation is expected to be disturbed.
One axis and two wings, internal reform to resist external disturbances. The company still adheres to the car dealer business as the core spindle and develops new directions in new energy and second-hand cars. Through the optimization of store structure and the improvement of internal management efficiency, the company's management expenses and financial expenses show a downward trend. At present, ultra-luxury and luxury brands account for 31%, and have established cooperation with more than 20 new energy vehicle brands, including BAIC Polar Fox, Great Wall Euler, Cyrus, XPeng Inc., Dongfeng Lantu, etc., and plans to build a new energy post-market service system with the integration of light storage and inspection. In 2022, the company still plans to continue to improve the store structure and increase the construction progress of new energy stores.
Investment suggestions: be optimistic about the optimization and transformation of the company's store structure and the deepening development of the post-market. The company is the largest car dealer group in China, with the largest number of base plate customers and the largest entrance to the realization of market flow.
The reform and expansion of new energy and used car business will bring new growth. Taking into account the impact of chip shortages and epidemics on midrange brands, we adjust our profit forecasts for 2022-2023 and introduce 2024 forecasts:
Revenue for 22-24 is estimated to be 191.6 billion yuan (1892 million yuan for 22-23), with a corresponding growth rate of + 6%. The estimated 22-24 net profit for 22-24 is estimated to be 100 million yuan in 24-34-43 (the original value in 22-23 is 2939 billion yuan), and the corresponding growth rate is + 46%, 43%, 27%, and 0.290.41, respectively. EPS 0.290.41, 0.53. Consider the company's PE center for nearly a year, give 22 years 10 x PE, lower the target price to 2.90 yuan, and maintain the "recommended" rating.
Risk tips: passenger car sales are less than expected, the impact of the epidemic is higher than expected, and core deficiency relief is lower than expected.