Dongzhu Ecology (603359): new infrastructure projects increased by 270% compared with the same period last year, optimistic about sustained growth and carbon sequestration business development.

東亞前海證券 · Apr 29, 2022 14:06 · Researches

事件

1）2022 年4 月28 日，东珠生态发布2021 年度报告&2022 年一季度报告，2021 年公司实现营收27.11 亿元，同比+15.95%；2021 年实现归母净利润4.81 亿元，同比+26.40%。单季度来看，2021 年Q4 实现营收9.20 亿元，环比+79.18%，同比+57.54%；实现归母净利润1.21 亿元，环比+45.85%，同比+280.86%。2022 年Q1 实现营收4.30 亿元，同比-17.91%；实现归母净利润0.82 亿元，同比-18.07%。2）2022 年至今，公司及子公司累计新中标项目2 项（生态修复类业务1 项+市政景观类业务1 项），合计中标金额为6.01 亿元，同比+244.44%；同期，公司及子公司累计新签订合同4 项（生态修复类业务2 项+市政景观类业务2项），合计项目金额为18.10 亿元，同比+279.72%。

点评

2021 年公司营收、业绩均实现稳健增长，业绩增长超出市场预期，主要原因系在双碳背景下，生态环境保护需求提升，叠加新农村振兴及新兴基建市场加速推进，公司生态修复和市政景观两大传统业务主线齐头前进。2022 年Q1 营收与业绩同比小幅减少，判断原因系短期略受疫情影响，但影响不大。我们认为公司在手订单相当充足，22 年仍处于员工持股计划执行期内，公司实现预期业绩稳健增长并保障持股计划解锁条件难度不大。公司新中标与新签订合同两项金额合计增速同比大增270.27%，其中新中标及新签订合同金额分别同比+244.44%/+279.72%，反映在我国当前经济形势下，基础设施建设项目投资正处于蓬勃发展的趋势中，公司营收与业绩增长将获得有效保障。

盈利能力实现同比强化，资产负债表端表现优异。1、从盈利能力来看，2021 年公司实现毛利率29.69%，同比+0.73pct，其中，生态修复/市政景观毛利率分别为29.96%/29.93%，分别同比+1.43pct/+1.56pct。公司费用管控良好， 2021 年管理/ 研发/ 财务费用率分别为3.42%/3.14%/-3.12%，期间费用率为3.43%，同比-2.76pct，主要原因系报告期内确认部分保证金利息及已审计投融资项目确认建设期利息和投资回报致使公司财务费用大幅减小。在毛利率提升及期间费用率下降的双轮驱动下，公司实现净利率17.73%，同比+0.94pct。同时公司ROE 达到14.10%，同比+1.70pct。总体来看，公司盈利能力实现同比强化。2、从资产负债表端来看，1）2021 年资产负债率提升至60.02%，在同业内仍处于较低水平，且负债项目主要系应付类项目构成，显示公司在产业链上处于较强地位；2）截至2021 年H1，公司无有息负债，截至2021年底，公司有息负债率为5.14%，主要系杭州G20 峰会沿江干道项目数量增加并要求加速竣工所致，公司有息负债率在同业仍处于最低水平之列；3）大股东无股权质押。

生态修复及市政景观基础设施建设主业蓬勃发展，公司合计在手未完工订单约60-70 亿元，2022 年至今新中标及新签订合同两项金额合计增速同比大增270.27%。从在手订单情况来看，截至2022 年Q1，公司合计在手未完工订单约60-70 亿元。从新增订单情况来看，2022 年至今，公司及子公司累计新中标项目2 项（生态修复类业务1 项+市政景观类业务1 项），合计中标金额为6.01 亿元，同比+244.44%；同期，公司及子公司累计新签订合同4 项（生态修复类业务2 项+市政景观类业务2项），合计项目金额为18.10 亿元，同比+279.72%。2022 开年以来，公司新中标及新签订合同金额同比均实现迅猛增长，加速推动公司未来业绩持续增长。此外，2021 年，公司及子公司累计新中标项目16 项，合计中标金额为28.84 亿元，同比+48.66%。2021 年，公司及子公司累计新签订项目合同16 项，合计项目金额为23.55 亿元，同比+24.87%。

林业资源迅猛扩张，碳汇业务将受益落地进展与CCER 重启。公司凭借市场、团队、资金和合作优势，快速及深入布局林碳业务，于去年10 月成为中证上海环交所碳中和指数100 家成分股里唯一入选的林业企业。从公司林业资源拓展进程来看，公司林业资源拓展迅速，于去年11月与四川省长江造林局签署远超500 万亩森林资源碳汇开发合作协议；于去年12 月与宁化县人民政府签署战略合作框架协议（林地面积约279万亩）；于今年1 月与永德县人民政府签署战略合作协议（林地面积约330 万亩）、与永平县人民政府签署项目投资框架协议（林地面积约303万亩）；于今年2 月与泸州航空发展集团有限公司签署项目投资框架协议（林地面积约920 万亩）。公司林业碳汇开发项目有望陆续生根落地。

从政策层面来看，上海环交所和北京绿色交易所均公开发声CCER 有望今年重启，公司碳汇业务将受益于CCER 重启。从碳价上涨趋势来看，随着我国统一碳市场的不断建设完善，供给端逐渐释放CCER 开发、需求端扩容与机构投资者不断纳入碳金融投资市场，碳价有望持续上涨，潜力较大。

投资建议

考虑到公司传统业务稳健增长以及在林碳业务加速布局，我们给予公司2022/23/24 年EPS 的预测分别为1.38/2.00/2.56 元，基于4 月28 日收盘价9.57 元，对应的PE 分别为7/5/4X，维持“强烈推荐”评级。

风险提示

订单业绩不及预期；政策落地不及预期；碳交易推广不及预期等。

Event

1) on April 28, 2022, Dongzhu Ecology released the annual report of 2021 & the first quarter report of 2022. The company achieved revenue of 2.711 billion yuan in 2021, compared with the same period of last year. + 15.95% of the company achieved a net profit of 481 million yuan in 2021, which was + 26.40% of the same period last year. In a single quarter, Q4 achieved revenue of 920 million yuan in 2021, + 79.18% month-on-month, + 57.54% year-on-year, and net profit of 121 million yuan, + 45.85%, and + 280.86%, respectively. In 2022, Q1 realized revenue of 430 million yuan,-17.91% of the same period last year, and net profit of 82 million yuan,-18.07% of the same period last year. 2) since 2022, the company and its subsidiaries have accumulated 2 new bid winning projects (1 ecological restoration business + 1 municipal landscape business), with a total winning amount of 601 million yuan, + 244.44% compared with the same period last year; in the same period, the company and its subsidiaries have signed 4 new contracts (2 ecological restoration business + 2 municipal landscape business), with a total project value of 1.81 billion yuan, + 279.72% compared with the same period last year.

Comment

In 2021, the company's revenue and performance achieved steady growth, and the performance growth exceeded market expectations, mainly due to the increased demand for ecological and environmental protection under the double carbon background, the superimposed revitalization of the new countryside and the acceleration of the emerging infrastructure market. the company's two traditional business lines of ecological restoration and municipal landscape are moving forward together. Q1 revenue and performance decreased slightly in 2022 compared with the same period last year, which is due to the slight impact of the epidemic in the short term, but not much. We believe that the company has plenty of orders on hand and is still in the execution period of the employee stock ownership plan for 22 years, so it is not difficult for the company to achieve steady growth in expected performance and ensure the unlocking conditions of the stock ownership plan. The combined growth rate of the company's newly won bid and newly signed contract increased by 270.27% compared with the same period last year, of which the newly won bid and newly signed contract amount were + 244.44% and 279.72% respectively compared with the same period last year, reflecting the current economic situation of our country. investment in infrastructure projects is in a trend of vigorous development, and the company's revenue and performance growth will be effectively guaranteed.

Profitability strengthened compared with the same period last year, and the balance sheet side performed well. 1. From the perspective of profitability, in 2021, the company achieved a gross profit margin of 29.69%, year-on-year + 0.73pct, of which the ecological restoration / municipal landscape gross profit margin was 29.96% and 29.93% respectively, and + 1.43pct/+1.56pct respectively. The company's cost control is good. In 2021, the management / R & D / financial expense rates are 3.42%, 3.14% and 3.12%, respectively, and the period expense rate is 3.43%, year-on-year-2.76pct. The main reason is that the company's financial expenses have been greatly reduced due to the confirmation of partial margin interest during the reporting period and the confirmation of construction interest and investment return of audited investment and financing projects. Under the two-wheel drive of the increase in gross profit margin and the decline in expense rate during the period, the company achieved a net profit margin of 17.73%, a year-on-year + 0.94pct. At the same time, the company's ROE reached 14.10%, year-on-year + 1.70pct. Overall, the company's profitability has been strengthened compared with the same period last year. 2. From the balance sheet side, 1) the asset-liability ratio rose to 60.02% in 2021, which is still at a low level in the same industry, and the liability projects are mainly composed of payables, indicating that the company is in a strong position in the industrial chain. 2) by 2021 H1, the company had no interest-bearing liabilities, and by the end of 2021, the company's interest-bearing debt ratio was 5.14%, mainly due to the increase in the number of trunk road projects along the Yangtze River at the G20 Summit in Hangzhou and the requirement for accelerated completion. The company's interest-bearing debt ratio is still among the lowest in the industry; 3) major shareholders have no equity pledge.

The main business of ecological restoration and municipal landscape infrastructure construction is booming. The company's total unfinished orders are about 60-7 billion yuan. Since 2022, the combined growth rate of new bids and newly signed contracts has increased by 270.27% compared with the same period last year. From the perspective of on-hand orders, as of 2022 Q1, the company's total unfinished orders on hand is about 60-7 billion yuan. From the perspective of new orders, since 2022, the company and its subsidiaries have accumulated 2 new bid winning projects (1 ecological restoration business + 1 municipal landscape business), with a total winning amount of 601 million yuan, which is + 244.44% compared with the same period last year. In the same period, the company and its subsidiaries signed a total of 4 contracts (2 ecological restoration business + 2 municipal landscape business), with a total project amount of 1.81 billion yuan, + 279.72% compared with the same period last year. Since the beginning of 2022, the company has achieved rapid growth in the amount of newly won bids and newly signed contracts compared with the same period last year, accelerating the sustained growth of the company's future performance. In addition, in 2021, the company and its subsidiaries won a total of 16 new projects, with a total winning amount of 2.884 billion yuan, + 48.66% over the same period last year. In 2021, the company and its subsidiaries signed a total of 16 new project contracts, with a total project amount of 2.355 billion yuan, + 24.87% compared with the same period last year.

With the rapid expansion of forestry resources, carbon sequestration business will benefit from the progress of landing and the restart of CCER. Relying on the advantages of market, team, capital and cooperation, the company quickly and deeply laid out the forest carbon business, and became the only forestry company selected among the 100 carbon neutralization index stocks on the Shanghai Ring Exchange in October last year. From the perspective of the company's forestry resources expansion process, the company's forestry resources expanded rapidly. In November last year, the company signed a cooperation agreement on carbon sequestration development of far more than 5 million mu of forest resources with the Yangtze River Afforestation Bureau of Sichuan Province. In December last year, it signed a strategic cooperation framework agreement with the people's Government of Ninghua County (the woodland area is about 2.79 million mu). In January this year, we signed a strategic cooperation agreement with the Yongde County people's Government (with a forest area of about 3.3 million mu) and a project investment framework agreement with the Yongping County people's Government (with a forest area of about 3.03 million mu). In February this year, we signed a project investment framework agreement with Luzhou Aviation Development Group Co., Ltd. (woodland area is about 9.2 million mu). The company's forestry carbon sequestration development project is expected to take root one after another.

From a policy point of view, both the Shanghai Ring Exchange and the Beijing Green Exchange have spoken publicly that CCER is expected to restart this year, and the company's carbon sequestration business will benefit from the restart of CCER. From the rising trend of carbon price, with the continuous construction and improvement of China's unified carbon market, supply-side gradually release CCER development, demand-side expansion and institutional investors continue to bring into the carbon financial investment market, carbon price is expected to continue to rise, with great potential.

Investment suggestion

Taking into account the steady growth of the company's traditional business and the accelerated layout of the company's forest carbon business, we give the company a forecast of $1.38 EPS for 2022-23-24, which is based on the closing price of $9.57 on April 28, and the corresponding PE is 7pm, 5max, 4X, respectively, maintaining a "highly recommended" rating.

Risk hint

The order performance is not as expected; the policy landing is not as expected; the promotion of carbon trading is not as expected.

The translation is provided by third-party software.

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东珠生态(603359)：基建新项目同比大增270% 看好业绩持续增长与碳汇业务发展

Dongzhu Ecology (603359): new infrastructure projects increased by 270% compared with the same period last year, optimistic about sustained growth and carbon sequestration business development.

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