The revenue growth rate of Q1 has picked up, and it has been judged to be bad strictly.
The growth rate of 22Q1 homing net profit, revenue, PPOP + 1.2%, + 2.5%, + 3.4% year-on-year + 2.1%,-6.7%,-11.5% respectively for 21 years was lower than we had expected (year-on-year + 5.0%), mainly due to the upward credit cost. 22Q1 revenue growth picked up, driven by the return of assets, the repair of other non-interest income growth, and the increase of provisions in the context of adverse marginal uplink.
It is proposed to pay a dividend of 0.30 yuan per share in 21 years, with a cash dividend ratio of 18.98% (2020: 19.39%) and a dividend yield of 4.93% (2022-4-28). In view of the rising risks and rising credit costs in some industries, we estimate that EPS 1.69 in 22-24 is 1.79max 1.93 yuan (the previous value is 1.90Unix 2.14), and BVPS in 22 years is 14.34 yuan, corresponding to 0.42 times of PB. Comparable company's 22-year Wind unanimously predicted that the average PB is 0.89 times, the company has more room for growth in the province, but the potential risk is still clear. We give the 22-year target PB 0.56 times, and the target price is adjusted from 8.27 yuan to 8.03 yuan, maintaining the "overweight" rating.
Asset growth picks up, Q1 spreads are lower than in 21 years
At the end of March, total assets, loans, deposits + 4.2%, + 9.4%, + 3.0%, compared with + 1.2pct,-1.0pct, + 3.0pct at the end of 21 years. Public loans accounted for 94% of the new Q1 loans, promoting the financial reform of large companies and supporting superior manufacturing, green and high-tech enterprises around the key industries of the "four modernizations" (new industrialization, new urbanization, agricultural modernization, and tourism industrialization). At the end of March, public loans were + 10.3% compared with the same period last year, and the balance of the "four modernizations" project at the end of 21 was 101.04 billion yuan, which was + 9.6% compared with the same period last year. The 21-year interest spread is 2.26%, which is the same as that of 21H1. The rate of return on interest-bearing assets and the cost ratio of interest-bearing liabilities are higher than those of 21H1+1bp and + 4bp. The rate of return on loans and the cost ratio of deposits are higher than those of 21H1-11bp and + 10bp. The fixed-term trend of deposits leads to an increase in interest payment costs. 22Q1 spreads are expected to be a drag on both assets and liabilities compared with 21-8bp.
Bad marginal upward, strict identification of assets, increase provisions
At the end of March, the defective rate, concern rate and provision coverage rate were 1.60%, 3.69% and 260%, respectively, compared with + 15bp, + 62bp and-11pct at the end of 21 years. The risk of some industries affected by the epidemic increased in stages, so asset classification should be strictly determined. At the end of 21, the deviation of non-performing loans overdue by more than 90 days was 91% higher than that at the end of 21H1-18pct. Write off 3.44 billion yuan of loans in 21 years, still maintain a high level compared with 20 years, and increase the stock clearing efforts. The annualized bad generation rate of Q1 is higher than that of 21Q4-0.44pct to 0.96%. The single-quarter credit cost of Q1 is higher than that of 21Q4 + 0.26pct to 1.53%. Under the background of asset quality fluctuations, the provision should be appropriately increased.
Retail transformation is effective, non-interest income growth is repaired
The mid-month income from January to March was-15.3% compared with the same period last year, which was mainly dragged down by the negative growth in business income such as financial management and investment banking compared with the growth rate of + 8.3 PCT in 21 years. We will promote the digitization, scene, and diversified transformation and upgrading of retail business, with a strong increase in savings deposits. At the end of March, retail deposits were + 15.0% compared with the same period last year, and retail deposits / total deposits were 42.7% higher than at the end of 21 years. Other non-interest income is + 76.3% compared with the same period last year, compared with + 86.2pct in 21 years. The core tier one capital adequacy ratio was 10.90% at the end of March, compared with + 0.28pct at the end of 21 years.
Risk hint: the duration of the economic downturn is longer than expected, and the deterioration of asset quality is higher than expected.