The company disclosed its results for the first quarter of 2021 and 2022:
21 full year: income 7.9 billion (YOY+ 12%), return mother 460 million (YOY+4%), deduct 140 million (YOY-66%) 21Q4: income 2.1 billion (YOY- 8%), return mother 140 million (YOY+ 26%), deduction Fei-76 million (YOY- 172%) 22Q1: income 1.6 billion (YOY- 24%), return mother 27 million (YOY- 73%), deduction Fei-19 million (YOY- 121)
Income: independent contribution to growth
2021:
1. Income by category: massage chairs 3.1 billion (+ 29%), massage appliances 2.4 billion (+ 18%), healthy environment 1 billion (- 6%) and other income 1.2 billion (- 15%)
2. The main massage industry maintained a good growth rate of + 24%, of which independent brands + 33%. The decline of healthy environment (mainly empty and clean, etc.) and other businesses (mainly epidemic prevention materials) was mainly due to the decline of related demand after the epidemic.
Q1 2022:
The decline in income is expected to be mainly due to the decline of dividends under the high base of contract manufacturers such as ① massage chairs, with 22Q1 exports + 4% year-on-year; and income related to the ② epidemic continues to decline.
Gross margin: cost pressure appears
2021:
1. The company's annual gross profit margin is 30% (- 4.4pct), Q4 is 31% (+ 1.3pct), including annual massage chair 41% (- 1.6pct), massage gadget 21% (- 3.9pct), healthy environment 17% (- 12.2pct), other 33% (- 6pct).
2. The decline in gross profit margin is mainly due to cost pressure, exchange rate fluctuations and sea freight. Small household appliances, which account for a high proportion of ODM business, are expected to be greatly affected.
Q1 2022:
Q1 gross profit margin is 29% (- 5.5pct), mainly due to high raw material cost volatility.
3. Profit: disposal of assets + hedging income
2021:
1. The full-year net interest rate is 5.8 per cent (- 0.7pct), including a return of about 160 million on the disposal of non-core assets and hedging.
5 billion income, affecting the net interest rate of about 3.5pct, and 21-year-on-year income tax rate-3.5pct also contributed; 2, Q4 net interest rate is 6.6% (+ 0.9pct), the year-on-year increase is mainly due to Q4 centralized recognition of 220 million investment income; Q4 period expense rate is 31.2% (+ 6.6pct), mainly due to sales expense rate year-on-year + 8.6pct.
Q1 2022:
Q1 is 1.8 per cent (- 3.4pct), and the expense rate during the Q1 period is 29.8 per cent (+ 2.2pct). The relative narrowing of the net interest rate is expected to be mainly due to income contributions such as exchange rate hedging.
4. Investment suggestions:
After the stock price correction, the risk is fully released, and the subsequent improvement of the exchange rate environment may be good for the company's export business. On the revenue side, taking into account the disturbance of the domestic epidemic, overseas inflation expectations or reduced alternative willingness to spend, based on this we adjust the profit forecast, the company's revenue is expected to be 88, 96, 10.8 billion yuan in 2022-2024 (100,11.2 billion before 2022-2023). On the profit side, taking into account the company's increase in the layout of the mid-end and sinking market, it is expected that the proportion of mid-range products with lower gross margin will increase, while the upstream cost pressure will remain, we expect the return net profit to be 5.0,5.5,640 million yuan (2022-2023 before the value of 7.5,890 million), the current PE corresponds to 10, 9, 8, maintaining the "buy" rating.
Risk Tips:
Order risk, cost fluctuation, intensified competition in the industry, fluctuation in downstream demand, rising shipping charges and port congestion lead to the risk of untimely delivery of goods, increased competition in the industry, the risk of third-party data distortion, and the risk that the public information used in the research report may lag behind or not updated in a timely manner.
