Incident: The company released its 2021 annual report and 2022 quarterly report. In 2021, the company achieved operating income of 7.70 billion yuan, yoy +2.99%; Guimu's net profit was 836 million yuan, yoy -8.41%; in Q1 2022, the company achieved revenue of 1,833 million yuan, yoy -6.49%, Guimu's net profit of 19,300 yuan, and YOY -13.63%.
Influenced by various factors, performance was under pressure, and Q1 improved steadily from month to month. In 2021, due to the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, the “double reduction” of the education industry, and real estate regulation policies, cloud computing customer revenue in related industries declined; the expected losses of the IDC business increased due to delays in the business payment process for some customers that were already listed; at the same time, as the company's business scale expanded, new data centers were put into operation and consolidation, leading to an increase in fixed costs such as depreciation and amortization. In addition, the company's net profit declined in '21. In Q1, under continuous pressure from the epidemic and industry policy regulation, etc., the company's various businesses operated smoothly, and revenue and profit were month-on-month A steady recovery has been achieved.
IDC's assets continue to expand steadily, and industry opportunities and challenges coexist. The company has operated and stored more than 100,000 cabinets across the country. As of Q1 2022, more than 45,000 cabinets have been put into production.
In 2021, the company's IDC and its value-added service revenue increased 10.20% year-on-year. With the steady increase in the listing rate of newly built data centers, fixed costs such as depreciation and amortization were further diluted. Q1's IDC business profits increased steadily in '22, but the promotion of projects such as Hebei Yanjiao and Shanghai Jiading was clearly affected by the epidemic control policy in the short term. With the development of the digital economy and the advancement of the “dual carbon” policy, opportunities and challenges in the IDC industry coexist. As an IDC industry leader, the company continues to accumulate resources, technical service capabilities, customer resources, etc., and is expected to benefit from industry development and optimization of the transformation process in the long run.
Investment advice: We forecast that from 2022 to 2024, the company's main business revenue will be 80.69, 84.87 and 8.927 billion yuan, net profit of the mother will be 886, 967 and 1,108 million yuan, and PE will be 19, 17 and 15x, maintaining the company's “buy” rating.
Risk warning: IDC market demand growth fell short of expectations; further tightening of epidemic control affected the company's data center construction and commissioning; competition in the IDC market intensified; cloud computing demand fell short of expectations.