Main points of investment
Event: Heiscox released its quarterly report for 2022, the main income was 562 million yuan, down 22.81% from the same period last year; the net profit from its mother was 26.2032 million yuan, down 90.88% from the same period last year; and the non-net profit was 17.9384 million yuan, down 66.66% from the same period last year. Gross profit margin 69.72%; sales expenses 197 million yuan, sales expenses rate 35.12%; management expenses 72.47 million yuan, management expenses rate 12.89%; R & D expenses 85.92 million yuan, R & D expenditure rate 15.29% comments: year-on-year decline is mainly affected by the reduction of core products health insurance prices: 2020 "Dorasetron mesylate injection"
Through the negotiation of health insurance into the national health insurance catalogue, the price of a single variety has dropped greatly. The annual report shows that the price of tumor antiemetic products has dropped by 85.6% to 146 million yuan in 2021 from 1.018 billion in 2020, while the implementation time of the price reduction of health insurance will begin on March 1, 2021. therefore, the Q1 base in 21 years is relatively high, resulting in a large year-on-year apparent decline; the trend of rapid release of cyclopropofol remains unchanged. Cyclopropofol is a kind of intravenous anesthetic developed by ourselves. it was approved and put on the market in December 2010. during the reporting period, it was newly approved for indications such as "general anesthesia induction" and "sedation in bronchoscopy". The sales of anesthetic products were 7.57 million yuan in the first half of 2021 and 60.15 million yuan in the whole year. The indications of cyclopropofol "sedation during intensive care" and "sedation and anesthesia in gynecological outpatient surgery" were applied for NDA in December 2021 and January 2022 respectively, and are expected to be approved this year. The American Ⅲ clinical enrollment of general anesthesia induction indications is progressing smoothly. With 21 years of negotiated entry into national health insurance, which will be implemented on January 1, 2022, we expect to continue to accelerate the volume trend in 22 years to make up for the impact of the decline in traditional business. Continuous R & D investment and innovative varieties drive a new round of growth: the company has eight category 1 innovative drug products that have entered the clinical stage. Except for cyclopropofol, analgesic and antipruritic drugs (HSK21542), neuralgia drugs (HSK16149) and long-acting hypoglycemic drugs (HSK7653) are all in the III phase. 7653 of them are expected to complete the III phase and declare by the end of the year, 21542 are expected to complete the III phase trials, and 3-4 innovative drugs are planned to be completed this year. In terms of internationalization, the company has conducted two phase III trials of cyclopropofol anesthesia induction (IGA) in the United States, and HSK29116 has obtained the IND approval of FDA in April 2022.
Profit forecast and investment advice: the company's operating income from 2022 to 2024 is expected to be 3.47 billion yuan, 4.53 billion yuan and 5.55 billion yuan respectively, an increase of 25%, 30.4% and 22.6% respectively over the same period last year.
Risk hints: the risk of drug research and development, the risk that the market capacity is lower than expected, the risk of drug price reduction, and so on.