Main points of investment
The net profit of the company Q1 is 127 million yuan, with a month-on-month ratio of + 94.05% and 51.97%, which is in line with market expectations. In 2022, Q1 company's revenue was 1.112 billion yuan, compared with 25.00% and + 25.00%; net profit from parent was 127 million yuan, and 51.97% from + 94.05% and 38.68% from non-net profit, and + 80.45% and 38.68%, respectively. In terms of profitability, Q1 gross profit margin is 23.85%, Q1 gross profit rate is 23.85%, Q1 gross profit rate is 23.85%, Q1 gross profit margin is 23.85%, Q1 gross profit rate is 23.85%, Q1 gross profit rate is 23.85%, Q1 gross profit Q1 copper foil shipments of 9000 tons, profit per ton month-on-month recovery.
The company shipped 9000 tons of Q1, an increase of about 5 per cent over the same period last year, and slightly decreased by 6 per cent month-on-month affected by the Spring Festival.
The company has an existing production capacity of 43000 tons, and a capacity of 27000 tons under construction is expected to be gradually released by Q2-Q3. As the epidemic slightly affects the progress of new capacity production, we expect the company to ship 55000 tons in 2022, + 57% of the same period last year. In terms of profitability, Q1 copper foil per ton deduction non-net profit reached 12,000 yuan / ton +, but due to the impact of the epidemic, the company Q1 Changchun plant and Kunshan plant shutdown caused some losses, if added back, Q1 copper foil per ton net profit is expected to reach 13,000 yuan / ton, month-on-month flat (considering Q4 impairment losses, etc.), a year-on-year increase of about 60%, in the case of rising electricity charges, the Q1 single ton net profit is flat. We expect that the company's profit per ton of products is expected to remain high in 2022 with the optimization of product structure and economies of scale.
The company's production capacity expansion is advancing steadily, overseas customers are expanding, and the product structure is optimized. The company has a production capacity of 43000 tons at the end of 2021, and 12000 tons under construction in Huizhou has completed commissioning. It is estimated that Q2 will complete climbing, Qinghai under construction will have a capacity of 15000 tons, and Q2 will be put into production one after another. We expect the company's effective production capacity to be more than 55000 tons in 2022. In addition, the production capacity of the first phase of Huangshi in Hubei Province is expected to be put into production in the second half of 2023. After it is put into production, the production capacity of the company has increased to 135000 tons, which is a leading industry for capacity expansion. In terms of product structure, the company's share of 4.5 mu and 4 mu copper foil shipments increased to 15% 20% in 2021, and we expect it to further increase to 20% + in 2022.
The supply of high-end production capacity of lithium copper foil will remain tight in 2022. According to our estimates, global industry demand will grow to 650000 tons in 2022, and supply will remain in short supply. On the supply side, Nord shares added 27000 tons of production capacity in 2022, Jiayuan Technology added 15000 tons of production capacity, and the new capacity of the industry as a whole is limited, and 4.5 μ m and 6 μ m links continue to be in short supply. Copper foil processing fees have increased by 0.5-10,000 yuan per ton since the second half of 2021, and we expect processing fees to remain high in 2022.
Profit forecast and investment rating: we maintain the company's 2022-2024 return net profit of RMB 10.699 billion to 1.429 billion yuan, corresponding to a 2022-2024 EPS of RMB 0.47, 0.62 and 0.82, a year-on-year increase of 100%, 32% and 34%. The current market capitalization corresponds to 2022-2024 PE of 18-14-10 times, given 2022 32xPE, corresponding to the target price of 15.04 yuan, maintaining the "buy" rating.
Risk hint: sales fall short of expectations and profitability falls short of expectations.
