Report guide

The net profit of 22Q1 in Qingdao Port was 1.142 billion yuan, an increase of 4.8% over the same period last year, while the net profit of non-return was 1.101 billion yuan, an increase of 4.9% over the same period last year. Volume price increase good performance in line with expectations, pay attention to the sound value of the northern port leader.

Main points of investment

The net profit of 22Q1 is 1.142 billion yuan, and the profit growth rate remains stable. 1) revenue: in the first quarter of 2022, through market development and internal potential tapping, the company's main business grew steadily, achieving revenue of 4.55 billion yuan, an increase of 18.4% over the same period last year.

2) on the cost side, the operating cost in the first quarter of 22 was 3 billion yuan, an increase of 25.4% over the same period last year.

3) at the net profit end, the company's 22Q1 achieved a net profit of 1.142 billion yuan, an increase of 4.75% over the same period last year, and a non-return net profit of 1.101 billion yuan, an increase of 4.86% over the same period last year. In addition, in terms of cash flow, the net operating cash flow of 22Q1 increased 420.9% to 673 million yuan compared with the same period last year. The performance is in line with expectations.

The cargo throughput in the first quarter was 147 million tons, maintaining a steady growth.

Business data grew steadily: the cargo throughput of 22Q1 Qingdao Port was 147 million tons, an increase of 3.3% over the same period last year, and the container throughput was 5.9 million TEUs, an increase of 6.3% over the same period last year. According to the caliber of Qingdao big city port area, the throughput of domestic trade goods is + 2.3% compared with the same period last year, and the throughput of foreign trade is + 3.1%, and the overall throughput is growing steadily.

The growth rate under the epidemic continues unabated: at present, the operating efficiency of bridge cranes in Qingdao Port Automation Terminal has reached 52.7 natural boxes / hour. in addition, a new satellite-Mediterranean route was opened on April 14 to expand the layout of ocean-going networks. According to the statistics of the China-Hong Kong Association, the container throughput of Qingdao Port grew by more than 10% in mid-April compared with the same period last year, and there is still a counter-trend growth in the face of multiple outbreaks across the country.

The rate side is expected to benefit from container adjustment and pattern optimization.

Regional integration: on January 28, 51% of the shares of Qingdao Port Group were transferred to Shandong Port Group for industrial and commercial change registration, and the actual controller of Qingdao Port shares was changed into Shandong State-owned assets Supervision and Administration Commission, further promoting the improvement of the regional port structure of Shandong Province.

Rate adjustment: superimposed February 9 QQCT announcement 40-foot and 20-foot heavy container handling charges increased by about 14% and 12% respectively, the expected rate side continues to improve. We estimate that the static profit elasticity corresponding to 2021 performance is about 8%.

With both volume and price rising in the future, we are optimistic about the steady growth of absolute revenue and throughput brought about by the steady growth of the company: the expansion of beneficial routes and the increase in transit ratio drive the growth of container business, in addition, the rebound of demand in the hinterland and the release of production capacity lead to the growth of liquid and dry bulk throughput, which will bring steady growth in the company's cargo throughput.

The rate is expected to increase: container loading and unloading rate publicity rate increase superimposed Shandong port integration, the company's actual rate is expected to continue to rise.

The rise in volume and price is expected to lead to steady growth in the company's performance, and the low valuation focuses on the value of absolute earnings.

Profit forecast and valuation

Taking into account the development of the company's business lines, we estimate that the company's net profit from 2022 to 2024 will be 4.393 billion yuan, 4.913 billion yuan and 5.483 billion yuan respectively, and the corresponding share price will be 7.8,7.0,6.2 times respectively, maintaining the "buy" rating.

Risk tips: transit box business does not advance as expected; loading and unloading rates decline; the throughput affected by the epidemic is not as expected.