The net profit of 1Q2022 was 2.254 billion yuan, down 21.33% from the same period last year, corresponding to 0.26 yuan of EPS, and the performance was in line with expectations. From January to February this year, the situation of domestic wind resources fell sharply compared with the same period last year, which is the main reason for the temporary decline in Q1 performance. Looking forward to the whole year, under the background that the company's financing channels have been successfully opened, the company's installed growth has entered a clear acceleration cycle, and promote the company's annual performance to continue a high growth period. Maintain the 2022-2024 homing net profit forecast of 83,212.4 billion yuan, maintain the list price of 29.6 yuan / 24.4 Hong Kong dollars and the "buy" rating.
1Q2022 EPS 0.26 yuan, in line with expectations. The company releases its quarterly report for 2022. 1Q2022, the company's operating income was 10.422 billion yuan, up 5.83% over the same period last year; the net profit returned to the mother was 2.254 billion yuan, down 21.33% from the same period last year; and corresponding to 0.26 yuan in EPS, down 25.71% from the same period last year, the performance was in line with expectations.
Installed growth against the decline in wind resources to promote the growth of electricity, the new depreciation costs led to a decline in performance. By the end of the first quarter of 2022, the company's wind power / photovoltaic installed capacity reached 2566.1 million kilowatts, an increase of 14.8 percent 104.4 percent over the same period last year. Wind resources fell sharply in the first quarter compared with the same period last year. The average utilization hours of wind power equipment across the country was 555 hours, 64 hours or 10.3% less than the same period last year. Depending on the growth of the installed scale, the company's wind power generation increased by 5.13% to 14.4 billion kilowatt hours in the first quarter compared with the same period last year. Due to the increase in depreciation, amortization and operation and maintenance expenses brought about by the newly installed and thickened fixed assets, 1Q2022's operating costs increased by 21.6% to 6.055 billion yuan compared with the same period last year, which is the main reason for the decline in performance. in addition, the company's investment in Guodian United Power loss and Nantong power generation profits also have a negative impact on the company's performance. 1Q2022 saved 137 million yuan (8.7%) to 936 million yuan in financial expenses compared with the same period last year, the upward trend of financial expenses was reversed, the effect of high-interest debt replacement was remarkable, and financing costs and debt structure were further optimized.
The lack of historical compensation of new energy is expected to be solved and the financing channel will be opened to release the growth potential of the company. As the operator with the earliest start and the largest scale of wind power installation with subsidies in stock, the undercompensation scale of renewable electricity price is expected to be in the forefront, and the financing receivable of 1Q2022 Company (mainly electricity receivable) is as high as 33.85 billion yuan.
According to the expenditure budget of the central government fund in 2022, we speculate that the subsidy for renewable energy can be increased by up to 360 billion yuan, which will effectively solve the problem of historical undercompensation. At present, the project reserve of the company is sufficient, and the reserve of 56.46GW scenery resources has been added in 2021. If the subsidy receivable releases the cash flow, it will accelerate the recovery of project investment, and superimpose AqiH dual equity financing platform to open up equity financing constraints, effectively alleviate the company's "13th five-year Plan" period of financial constraints and constraints on installed expansion. We expect the company's installed capacity to return to the fast lane during the 14th five-year Plan period, wind power installation scale will reach 29.7/36.7/39.7GW by the end of 2022-2024, photovoltaic installation scale will reach 3.1/7.1/12.1GW respectively, which will help the National Energy Group to achieve the goal of clean energy transformation.
Risk factors: electricity demand is lower than expected; the company's new energy business development is lower than expected; electricity price subsidy recovery is lower than expected; grid electricity price is greatly reduced; new project cost fluctuation.
Investment advice: taking into account the compliance with the company's performance, we maintain the forecast of EPS for 2022 to 2024 at 0.99max 1.21x1.48, the current price corresponding to A-share dynamic PE is 21-17-14, and the corresponding H-share dynamic PE is 13-11-9. With reference to the company's historical valuation, we give the company's 2022 30max 20 times the target PE, maintain the company's A share price of 29.6 yuan / HK $24.4, and maintain the "buy" rating.