Regional leaders, continue to promote pollution and carbon reduction, and maintain the rating of "increasing holdings"
In 21 years, the company achieved revenue of 45.5 billion yuan (yoy+44%) and net profit of 1.92 billion yuan (yoy+3%), which was consistent with the previous performance of KuaiBao (2022-14); 21Q4 realized revenue of 12 billion yuan (yoy+33%, qoq-5%) and net profit of 260 million yuan (yoy-57%, qoq-34%). Based on the company's 22-year business plan, and considering that 22 years of weak downstream demand has dragged down the steel price, we adjust the relevant assumptions. We estimate that the company's EPS in 22-24 is 0.570.63 pounds 0.82 yuan (the previous value is 1.09 pounds 1.19 pounds-yuan), and the average PB (2022E) of the comparable company is 0.73X. Considering the company's regional leading position and continuous efforts to reduce pollution and carbon, the company is valued at 0.85 times PB for 22 years. BPS (2022E) is 4.89 yuan, corresponding to the target price of 4.16 yuan (the previous value is 5.69 yuan), maintaining the "overweight" rating.
The action of reducing pollution and carbon has been actively carried out in the past 21 years, and the planned output of crude steel in 22 years has been the same as the same period last year.
According to the company's annual report, the company's crude steel output in 21 years is 8.02 million tons, which is the same as the same period last year; sales of commodity billets are 8.94 million tons (yoy+8.6%). 21 years plate market demand is good, the company plate performance pressure range is the smallest, the current gross profit margin is 12.7% (yoy-1.2pct), thread, wire rod decline is even greater, gross profit margin is 13.0%, 8.7% (yoy-2.8pct, qoq-4.5pct). Under the double-carbon background, we have actively carried out pollution reduction and carbon reduction actions in the past 21 years, and the realization rate of ultra-low emissions of organized waste gas has reached more than 60%, and the discharge of waste water per ton of steel has decreased by 57.7% compared with the same period last year. In addition, the company has actively carried out technological innovation and developed 91 new products in the past 21 years. Sales of 74900 tons. According to the company's annual report, it plans to produce 8.02 million tons of steel in 22 years (the same as the same period last year) and sell 11.3 million tons of billets (including "base management, brand operation" sales).
In 21 years, the company's net sales interest rate decreased by 1.7pct compared with the same period last year, and the cash dividend rate was 25.2%.
According to the company's annual report, the company's 21-year gross sales margin of 9.3% (yoy-2.8pct), period expense rate of 4.0% (yoy-0.8pct), in absolute terms, financial expenses turned negative compared with the same period last year, mainly due to reduced interest payments, net sales margin of 4.2% (yoy-1.7pct). In 21 years, the net profit of Baowujie Fuyi, the joint venture company of the company, was 5.88 million yuan, an increase of 83% over the same period last year. In addition, the company plans to pay a dividend of 0.2 yuan per share in 21 years, with a cash dividend rate of 25.2%.
The iron and steel industry has continued to regulate and control its output in the past 22 years, and the profitability of the industry may be supported by a bottom.
According to the company's annual report, the company's market share of medium and heavy plate, building materials and industrial wire rod in Guangdong is 21.6%, 15.3% and 13.6% respectively. According to the NDRC's April press conference, it is clear that iron and steel production will continue to be regulated in the 22nd year to ensure a decline in steel production compared with the same period last year, but insist on distinguishing the situation, keep pressure, and avoid an across-the-board approach. On the one hand, it has continued to adjust the supply side of the iron and steel industry for 22 years, and under the background of a drag on downstream demand such as real estate, the industry may have bottom support; on the other hand, the company and other industry-leading steel enterprises may have more technical and financial advantages in carbon reduction, and the company is not located in key areas (Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei and surrounding areas, Yangtze River Delta region, Fen-Wei Plain, etc.), or will relatively benefit.
Risk hint: macroeconomic is not as expected, downstream demand is not as expected, and industry policy has changed.