Comments on Hanrui Cobalt Industry (300618) 2021 Annual report and 2022 Quarterly report: the continuous high operation of copper and cobalt prices led to the high performance of the company.

中信證券 · Apr 28, 2022 10:37 · Researches

　　铜钴产品价格维持高位运行，公司2022 年利润增长有望持续。产业链布局延伸以及产销规模扩张为后续业绩增厚奠定基础。维持“买入”评级。

　　 2021 年以来公司收入利润实现大幅增长。2021 年公司实现营业收入43.5 亿元，同比增长93.0%，实现归母净利润6.63 亿元，同比增长98.25%，扣非后归母净利润6.94 亿元，同比增长268.94%。2022 年第一季度，公司实现营收15.73亿元，同比增长51.82%，实现归母净利润1.74 亿元，同比增长73.69%，扣非后归母净利润2.26 亿元，同比增长5.67%。非经常性损益主要来自公司持有孚能科技股票价值变动，2022Q1 影响约0.7 亿元。

　　 2021 年公司铜钴产品销售量价齐升，盈利能力大幅增强。2021 年公司铜产品产销量分别为3.99 万吨、3.46 万吨，同比增长46%、27%；钴产品产销量分别为7898 吨、8243 吨，同比分别增长25%、38%。受益于子公司寒锐金属2 万吨电解铜项目、安徽寒锐3000 吨钴粉项目以及刚果迈特氢氧化钴产量增加，公司铜钴产量显著增加。2021 年铜钴金属价格同比上涨超过40%，公司钴产品业务受益于价格上涨，毛利率提升至34.4%，为2019 年以来最好水平。

　　铜产品售价偏低影响公司利润释放。2021 年公司电解铜平均售价为5.14 万元/吨，较市场价折价系数达到85%，2018-2020 年售价的折价系数为93%。受电解铜售价偏低影响，2021 年公司电解铜业务毛利率降至25.5%，较2020 年下降约7pcts。我们推测公司铜产品售价较低的原因是2021 年初铜价快速上涨过程中公司未能及时调整售价。2021 年下半年以来，铜价维持高位运行，我们预计公司铜产品售价有望显著提升，带动铜业务毛利率提高。

　　产业链延伸稳步推进。2021 年公司将“5000 吨电积钴项目”改建为“6000 吨电积铜”和“5000 吨氢氧化钴”项目，推动铜钴产能进一步扩张。子公司赣州寒锐正在建设1 万吨钴新材料和2.6 万吨三元前驱体产能，建成后将进一步完善公司的钴产业链并向下游电池材料环节延伸。

　　风险因素：铜钴金属价格下跌的风险；公司产能扩张进度不及预期的风险。

　　投资建议：受益于铜钴产品销售量价齐升，公司2021 年以来业绩增厚显著。考虑到铜钴价格涨幅超出预期，上调公司2022-2023 年归母净利润预测值为10.70/12.63 亿元（原预测为9.31/12.02 亿元），新增2024 年预测值为15.77亿元，对应EPS 预测为3.46/4.08/5.09 元股。预计2022 年铜钴行业景气度持续，公司股价有望触底反弹。维持“买入”评级。

The price of copper and cobalt products remains high, and the company's profit growth is expected to continue in 2022. The extension of the industrial chain layout and the expansion of production and marketing scale lay the foundation for the subsequent performance thickening. Maintain a "buy" rating.

The company's revenue and profits have increased significantly since 2021. In 2021, the company realized operating income of 4.35 billion yuan, an increase of 93.0% over the same period last year, and a net profit of 663 million yuan, an increase of 98.25% over the same period last year. The net profit of non-return was 694 million yuan, an increase of 268.94% over the same period last year. In the first quarter of 2022, the company achieved revenue of 1.573 billion yuan, an increase of 51.82% over the same period last year, and a net profit of 174 million yuan, an increase of 73.69% over the same period last year. The net profit after deducting non-return was 226 million yuan, up 5.67% from the same period last year. The non-recurrent profit and loss mainly comes from the change in the value of the company's holding of Funeng technology stock, and the impact of 2022Q1 is about 70 million yuan.

In 2021, the company's sales volume and prices of copper and cobalt products rose, and its profitability was greatly enhanced. In 2021, the company's production and sales of copper products were 39900 tons and 34600 tons respectively, an increase of 46% and 27% respectively over the same period last year; and production and sales of cobalt products were 7898 tons and 8243 tons respectively, up 25% and 38% respectively over the same period last year. Benefiting from the 20,000-ton electrolytic copper project of the subsidiary Hanrui Metal, the 3000-ton cobalt powder project of Anhui Hanrui and the increase in the production of cobalt hydroxide in Congo, the company's copper and cobalt production has increased significantly. Copper and cobalt metal prices rose more than 40% year-on-year in 2021, and the company's cobalt products business benefited from higher prices, with gross profit margins rising to 34.4%, the best level since 2019.

The low price of copper products affects the company's profit release. The average selling price of the company's electrolytic copper in 2021 is 514,000 yuan / ton, which is 85% of the market price. The discount coefficient of the 2018-2020 price is 93%. Affected by the low price of electrolytic copper, the gross profit margin of the company's electrolytic copper business fell to 25.5% in 2021, about 7pcts lower than in 2020. We speculate that the reason for the lower price of the company's copper products is that the company failed to adjust the price in time during the rapid rise in copper prices at the beginning of 2021. Since the second half of 2021, copper prices have remained high, and we expect the price of the company's copper products to increase significantly, leading to an increase in the gross profit margin of the copper business.

The extension of the industrial chain is advancing steadily. In 2021, the company converted "5000 tons of Electrodeposited Cobalt Project" into "6000 tons of Electrodeposited Copper" and "5000 tons of Cobalt hydroxide" projects to promote the further expansion of copper and cobalt production. The subsidiary Ganzhou Hanrui is building 10,000 tons of new cobalt materials and 26000 tons of ternary precursors. After completion, it will further improve the company's cobalt industry chain and extend to the downstream battery materials.

Risk factors: the risk of copper and cobalt metal prices falling; the risk that the company's capacity expansion is not as fast as expected.

Investment advice: benefiting from the rise in sales volume and prices of copper and cobalt products, the company's performance has increased significantly since 2021. Taking into account the higher-than-expected price increase of copper and cobalt, the company's net profit forecast for 2022-2023 is 1.263 billion yuan (the original forecast is 1.02 billion yuan), and the new 2024 forecast is 1.577 billion yuan, corresponding to the EPS forecast of 3.46 million yuan. It is expected that the prosperity of the copper and cobalt industry will continue in 2022, and the company's share price is expected to hit bottom and rebound. Maintain a "buy" rating.

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寒锐钴业(300618)2021年年报及2022年一季报点评：铜钴价格持续高位运行带动公司业绩高增

Comments on Hanrui Cobalt Industry (300618) 2021 Annual report and 2022 Quarterly report: the continuous high operation of copper and cobalt prices led to the high performance of the company.

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