When a lot of bizarre things happen, look at the cycle.

Howard Marks, founder and investment guru of Oak Capital, said: "when everyone believes that something is risky, their reluctance to buy usually lowers the price to a completely risk-free level. "

Howard Max's "the most important thing to invest" is a must-read for many domestic investors. After that, he used the length of the book "cycle" to talk about the topic of cycle.

As he said, "in the face of cycles, we may never know where we are going, but it is best to know where we are." "

Where on earth are we?

Are you at the bottom of the cycle now?

To what extent do our emotions affect our current choices?

In such a large cycle environment, maybe this is what we need to calm down and think about.

"this time is different" is the five most dangerous words in the investment world.

1. When others take high-risk behavior, we need to be more cautious.

2. "this time is different" is the five most dangerous words in the investment world, especially when the market price reaches the extreme valuation level in history, but at this time, many people say "this time is different".

Keep in mind that when things look "too good to be true", they are usually not true.

4. "worst-case scenario" only means "the worst we have seen in the past", but it does not mean that future events cannot be worse.

5, the biggest investment risk exists in the most imperceptible places, and vice versa.

6. When everyone believes that something is risk-free, the price is usually bid up to the point where there is great risk.

Risk is minimum when everyone believes that something is risky.

7, if a higher-risk investment can reliably produce higher returns, then it is not really high-risk!

8. If a risk is in the current market and most investors think it will happen, then it is not a risk; if most investors think that something will not happen in the future, then this is where the risk lies.

When everyone believes that something is risky, their reluctance to buy usually lowers the price to a completely risk-free level. Widespread negativity minimizes risk because all optimism in the price is eliminated.

10. One of the most interesting things about investment is its contradiction: the most obvious things that everyone agrees with often turn out to be wrong.

Easy money comes from doing what others don't want to do.

Easy money comes from doing things that others don't want to do. If you do what everyone is in a hurry to do, and rush to do it with you, you can only do it when the money is highest, which means it is impossible to succeed. If you want to buy, others are not willing to buy, you can buy at a low price, there is a good return.

When there is a crisis, we need to make money. There are two prerequisites for making money: first, you must have money, and second, you must have guts. If you dare to spend this money, when you have both, this is the formula for success.

13. In times of panic, people spend 100% of their time making sure there is nothing to lose. In fact, what they should be worried about at this time is that they may miss out on excellent investment opportunities.

14, when the knife stops falling, the dust has settled, and the uncertainty is resolved, the lucrative bargain stocks will cease to exist.

It is not enough to invest in the opposite of Volkswagen. We must also know where Volkswagen is wrong.

15，It is not enough to invest in the opposite of the public. You have to make sure that when you make reverse investments, you know not only that they are contrary to what the public is doing, but also where they are wrong. Only in this way can you stick to your point of view.

16. Successful investment does not lie in "buying good", but in "buying well".

17. The places with the best bargains for investment are usually places that no one has explored, or places that no one cares about.

Our goal is to find assets that are undervalued, and the best opportunities are usually found in things that most people don't want to do.

The value of bargains lies in their unreasonably low prices, so they have an unusual return-risk ratio, and they are the holy grail of investors.

20，The big bottom comes when everyone forgets that the tide still rises. That's the time we expect.

The cycle will definitely last forever.

In the face of cycles, we may never know where we are going, but it is best to know where we are.

The rise will certainly not last forever, but the cycle will definitely last forever.

Most people know that a big rise is followed by a big fall. But only a few people can see that the truth is that a big rise leads to a big fall. We need to understand the following two points: first, the cyclical adjustment after the surge will not be mild, gradual and painless; second, there can be no big fall without the surge.

24, investors can not remember the past, further strengthening the influence of the cycle.

25，Most trends eventually go too far, benefiting those who realise this earlier and punishing those who participate later.

26, outstanding investors must be skeptical. "when optimism is excessive, skepticism summons pessimism; but when pessimism is excessive, skepticism also beckons optimism." "

27, do not pay too much attention to the short-term rise and fall of the market every day, these are small things like sesame seeds, but to focus on the extreme situation of an once-in-a-lifetime cycle, which is a major event like a watermelon.

28，Even if the market is overdeveloped, remember that "overvalued" is very different from "it will fall tomorrow".

Investment is counterintuitive.

29. In investment events, everything that is important is counterintuitive, and everything that everyone thinks is obviously right is actually wrong.

Everyone believes that there is always something in the world that will work forever, but it is at this time that it will no longer be effective.

If everyone really realized that the market had risen too high, then the market would not have risen so high at all.

32，Like a pendulum, investors spend a lot of time going to extremes, either to one extreme or to the other. Investors seldom stay at the center and seldom take the golden mean that makes people happy.

33. For those who are not naturally emotional, it is much easier to invest. Lack of emotion is a great advantage given to investors. It is an advantage in investment, but in other areas, such as marriage, it may be a big disadvantage given to you by God.

34. Following a trend that is popular at some point may cause investors to follow a comfortable but wrong path.

If we avoid losses, profits will come uninvited

No matter how good the fundamentals are, human greed and tendency to make mistakes will make a mess of things.

If we avoid losses, profits will come unsolicited.

37. Just predicting correctly does not guarantee the success of your investment. You must predict it more accurately than other investors to ensure that your investment is more successful.

By the same token, you don't have to be completely right to be successful: you just have to make fewer mistakes than other investors.

39. Investment success does not come from having a correct forecast, but from having an excellent prediction that surpasses the public.

When you can't get what you want, you get experience.

Successful investments often teach only two lessons: one is that it is easy to make money, and the other is that you don't have to worry about risk at all. These are two particularly dangerous pseudo-experiences.

41, "when you can't get what you want, you get experience." Good times only bring bad experiences: investing is easy, you already know the secret of investing, and you don't have to worry about risks.

One of the differences between humans and other species is that we don't have to experience something to know how dangerous it is. We don't need to burn ourselves to verify the fact that we shouldn't sit on a hot stove. But in a bull market, people tend to lose this ability.

Success itself gives birth to the seeds of failure, and failure itself also gives birth to the seeds of success.

Society cannot be allowed to define success for us.

44，One of my most important experiences is that we can't let society define success for us.Society may define success as the most money, the best car, the best house. But if this doesn't suit us, we shouldn't chase it.

The worst thing in the world is to spend your whole life chasing the goals that society has set for you, and then find yourself wasting your time at the end of your life.

46, you know more about the future trend than others, that is, the advantage of knowledge is enough for you to achieve long-term investment success.

47，Extensive reading is a good preview for investing in the future.The importance of reading is self-evident, and to read books in various industries, not only in the field of investment, such as reading professional books in the field of science and technology, you can find that it is so different from investment, but it is inextricably linked.

When you are looking for a career direction, the two most important things are to find something that can take advantage of your strengths without exposing too many weaknesses, and to do something you like.

49, in the world of investment, there is no knowledge that will be valid forever.

Jealousy has more negative effects than greed and is one of the most harmful aspects of human nature. Most investors find it difficult to accept the fact that others make more money than they do.