In the first quarter of 22, the net profit deducted from non-return decreased by 19.4% compared with the same period last year. The company released a quarterly report, with revenue of 4.34 billion yuan in the first quarter of 22,-7.6% year-on-year; net profit of 740 million yuan,-14.5%; and non-return net profit of 750 million yuan,-19.4%. According to the China Automobile Association, commercial vehicle sales fell 31.6% in the first quarter of 22 compared with the same period last year, and the company's profit performance was better than that of the industry, with good stability.
Proprietary profits increased month-on-month. 22Q1's net income from investment accounted for 69.6% of its operating profit. The net income of 22Q1's investment was 560 million yuan, + 0.7% compared with the same period last year, and + 59.6% compared with the previous year. Among them, the return on investment in joint ventures and joint ventures was 520 million yuan, + 0.4% compared with the same period last year, and + 95.7% compared with the previous year. On the basis of the growth of investment income, the proportion of the company's self-operating profit in operating profit has increased from the previous month.
22Q1 realized its own profit (operating profit-net income from changes in fair value-net income from investment) of 280 million yuan, which was-41.7% compared with the same period last year and + 343.2% compared with the previous year. 22Q1's proprietary profit accounts for 34.6% of its operating profit, with a month-on-month ratio of + 20.1pct.
The company still has a good dividend capacity. At the end of the first quarter of 22, monetary funds + notes receivable + accounts receivable financing + other current assets + transactional financial assets totaled 8.84 billion yuan, down 11.8 percent from the end of 21 years. The asset-liability ratio is only 29.1%, the interest-bearing debt / total invested capital is only 8.8%, and the long-term capital-liability ratio is only 3.2%.
Profit forecast and investment suggestions: the company has high product barriers, sound operation, and the stability of profits and dividends can be expected. the equity incentive plan will fully mobilize the enthusiasm of the company's senior management and core personnel and make it more consistent with the interests of shareholders. Taking into account the impact of non-recurring profit and loss, we estimate that the EPS of the company in 22-24 is 2.66 EPS 2.77 plus 2.88 yuan per share, and the current share price corresponds to 7.34 plus 7.05 PE 6.77 times. Combined with the historical valuation of the company and the PE valuation center of the international parts company in recent years, we give the company 15 times PE for 22 years, with a reasonable value of 39.87 yuan per share, maintaining a "buy" rating.
Risk hints: macroeconomic growth and downstream prosperity are lower than expected; the impact of the epidemic is higher than expected.
