Event: reliable shares release 2021 annual report and 2022 quarterly report. In 2021, the company's operating income was 1.186 billion yuan, down 27.44% from the same period last year; the net profit was 40 million yuan, down 81.43% from the same period last year; and the net profit was 33 million yuan, down 83.42% from the same period last year. Among them, the operating income of 2021Q4 in the current quarter was 320 million yuan, down 20.44% from the same period last year; the net profit was-30 million yuan, down 164.63% from the same period last year; and the net profit was-34 million yuan, down 183.52% from the same period last year.
In addition, 2022Q1 achieved operating income of 322 million yuan, down 3.34% from the same period last year; net profit from home was 2 million yuan, down 95.14% from the same period last year; and net profit from non-return was 1 million yuan, down 96.31% from the same period last year.
The income of the baby care business is affected by the demand, and the company's performance is under pressure to continuously upgrade and optimize the product structure in 2021. Excluding the income from epidemic prevention materials, the annual income growth rate dropped by 19.01% compared with the same period last year, mainly due to the sluggish demand in the baby care market. According to the category, the income of baby care products, adult care products (adult incontinence + female care), pet care products, masks and others in 2021 is RMB 6.12, 4.64 and 0.88 million yuan respectively, an increase of-34.81%, 8.07%, 13.86% and 88.09%, respectively, accounting for 51.6% 39.09%, 7.40%, 1.90%. The birth rate continues to decline to reduce the demand for infant health products; the degree of aging is increasing day by day, the market for adult incontinence products is growing rapidly, and the demand for female health products continues to grow.
In terms of sub-sales model, the revenue of the company's own brand and ODM model in 2021 was 391 million yuan respectively, down 12.05% and 33.81% compared with the same period last year, accounting for 32.96% and 65.57% respectively.
Its own brand is mainly adult series, while ODM is mainly baby and pet series. The company focuses on improving the value of its own brand, increasing brand investment, starting a brand upgrade plan with Shanghai Hua Hua Marketing Consulting Co., Ltd., making every effort to create the concept of "dynamic elderly" and leading the new experience of enjoying the old. The company continues to optimize product performance and experience, and focuses on mid-and high-end research and development to optimize product structure, and has formed a brand-rich and well-structured product matrix in its own brands, such as invisible water-absorbing towels and invisible walking pants for mild incontinence products for Asian women, as well as professional men's water-absorbing towels.
2022Q1 profitability rebounded month-on-month, and sales and management expenses increased. In terms of profitability, the company's comprehensive gross profit margin was 18.64% in 2021, down 9.19pct from the same period last year.
Among them, the company's domestic trade gross profit margin was 21.48%, down 2.46pct from the same period last year; foreign trade gross profit margin was 15.68%, down 16.14pct from the same period last year. 2021Q4's comprehensive gross profit margin was 7.56%, down 16.41% from the same period last year. 2022Q1's comprehensive gross profit margin was 12.07%, and 13.30pct was down from the same period last year. The rise in raw material costs and transportation costs still affected the company's gross profit margin, but compared with 2021Q4, the gross profit margin rebounded 4.51pct. Under the combined influence, the net interest rate of the company in 2021 was 3.35%, down 9.74% from the same period last year. The net interest rate of 2022Q1 company was 0.61%, and the year-on-year decline of 11.49pct.
In terms of period expenses, the expense rate during 2021 was 14.40%, an increase of 3.90pct over the same period last year, and the sales / management / R & D / financial expense rates were 7.64%, 3.13%, 4.15%, 0.53%, respectively, + 3.64/+1.61/+0.55/-1.90pct. Among them, the increase in sales expenses is mainly due to the increase in marketing expenses and human resources costs, and the increase in management expenses is mainly due to the cancellation of preferential treatment such as taxation and social security.
Investment advice: under the trend of aging, the market penetration of adult incontinence products in China is still increasing year by year. As the leading enterprise of adult incontinence products in China, the company uses "independent brand + ODM"
Two-wheel drive development, continue to build independent brand competitiveness at the same time continue to optimize the product structure, performance is expected to be gradually repaired. We estimate that the operating income of reliable shares from 2022 to 2024 will be 13.95,16.23 and 1.859 billion yuan respectively, an increase of 17.58%, 16.34% and 14.54% over the same period last year. The homing net profit was 0.78,1.54 and 221 million yuan respectively, an increase of 96.25%, 97.44% and 43.51% over the same period last year, corresponding to PE of 42.5x, 21.5x and 15.0x, respectively. Considering the short-term pressure on performance and the temporary uncertainty about the impact of the epidemic, the investment rating of holding-A was maintained.
Risk tips: the risk of a sharp rise in raw material prices, downstream demand is less than expected risk, industry competition intensifies the risk.
