Incidents:
(1) The company released its 2021 annual report, achieving annual revenue of 1,300 million yuan, an increase of 25.64% over the previous year; the net profit of the mother was 71 million yuan, a decrease of 31.11% over the previous year. (2) The first quarter report of 2022 was released. 2022Q1 achieved revenue of 227 million yuan, an increase of 17.08% over the previous year; it achieved net profit of 17 million yuan to the mother, an increase of 8.81% over the previous year.
Comment:
The scale of the business continues to expand, and profitability has declined. At present, the company has built five major business segments, including intelligent logistics transportation systems, intelligent logistics warehousing systems, intelligent three-dimensional parking systems, intelligent coating systems, and intelligent information system integration and R&D. The revenue growth rates of each business segment in 2021 were -12.15%/20.03%/111.34%/58.05%/62.74%, respectively. Among them, the decline in revenue from the intelligent logistics transportation system business was mainly affected by factors such as delays in the construction of production lines for downstream customers due to the epidemic. The company's profitability declined compared to the previous year, mainly due to: (1) a decrease in gross margin due to a sharp rise in raw material prices; (2) an increase in period expenses due to increased R&D investment, increased market expansion, and exchange losses; (3) losses and debt restructuring losses due to the re-measurement of remaining shares at fair value after CIMC Intelligence was published.
The business landscape continues to expand around intelligent logistics. The company has been deeply involved in the intelligent logistics equipment industry for a long time, and has rich project implementation experience in the pharmaceutical, liquor, food and beverage, household, 3C electronics and other industries. In recent years, the company combined its own advantages to develop industries with potential for rapid explosion, such as power lithium batteries, photovoltaics, iron and steel metallurgy, and cold chain logistics. Furthermore, the company is one of the few domestic suppliers that also has the ability to provide solutions for the three major automobile production systems of enterprise assembly, welding, and painting. Currently, it has established business cooperation with well-known NEV companies in the industry such as Geely New Energy, BAIC New Energy, BYD, Xiaopeng Motor, and Jiangling New Energy.
Investment suggestions: Driven by the rapid growth of the downstream NEV and e-commerce industries, intelligent logistics systems and intelligent spraying systems will continue to grow rapidly, and Zibo state-owned assets will continue to empower the company's development after becoming the controlling shareholder of the company. Considering the impact of the domestic epidemic on economic recovery, downstream demand has been delayed. The performance forecast is lowered. The company's revenue growth rate for 2022-2024 is expected to be 30.78%, 25.60%, and 21.28% respectively; the net profit growth rate of the return mother is 70.49%, 60.99%, and 37.35% respectively; EPS is 0.30, 0.48, and 0.66 yuan/share, respectively, and PE corresponding to the current stock price is 25/15/11 times, giving the company a 40-fold valuation in 2022, lowering the target price to 12.0 yuan, maintaining the “buy” evaluation level.
Risk warning: The epidemic affects economic recovery; raw material prices fluctuate.
