This report is read as follows:
The volume and price rise simultaneously, the superimposed cost decreases, and the profit increases greatly in 2021; the decline in production cost is a drag on Q1 performance, and the subsequent production and sales volume is expected to increase; Hongdunzi Coal Mine provides sustainable growth.
Main points of investment:
Maintain profit forecast and target price, increase rating. The 21-year revenue is 8.37 billion yuan (+ 91.8%), the return net profit is 2.01 billion yuan (+ 4105.9%), the 22Q1 revenue is 1.74 billion (+ 27.0%), the return net profit is 310 million (+ 82.9%), the 21-year performance is in line with expectations, and the 22Q1 performance is lower than expected. Maintain EPS1.38/1.59 yuan in 22,000,000 yuan, forecast EPS1.69 yuan in 24 years, maintain target price 11.04yuan, increase holding rating.
Both volume and price rise and the superimposed cost decreases, and the profit increases greatly in 2021. In 2021, the coal output / sales volume is 13.72 million tons (+ 12.9% 8.7%), the price per ton of coal is 514 yuan / ton (+ 87.1%), and the cost per ton of coal is 131 yuan / ton (- 12.8%). Thanks to the high elasticity of coal sales in the market, the volume and price have risen and the superimposed cost has decreased. Haohua refined Coal (Gaojialiang Coal Mine / 80% shareholding) and Western Energy (Hongqingliang Coal Mine / 60% shareholding) achieved net profits of 2.32 billion (+ 308.5%) and 1.21 billion (+ 757000.7%), respectively.
Methanol business is subject to high raw coal prices, Cathay Pacific Chemical lost 320 million; railway transport business grew steadily, East Copper Railway achieved a net profit of 34 million (+ 18.2%).
Falling production and higher costs are a drag on Q1 performance, and subsequent production and sales are expected to increase. The company's 2022Q1 coal production / sales volume is 279 / 2.89 million tons (- 15.87% torque 16.42%), the price of per ton coal is 585 yuan / ton (+ 61.6%), and the cost per ton coal is 250 yuan / ton (+ 48.4%). The performance is driven by high coal prices, but the decline in production and higher costs are a drag on the performance. The company plans to produce and sell more than 14.5 million tons of coal in 2022 (1280,13.12 million tons in 2021), and it is expected that the subsequent production and sales will increase.
Hongdunzi Coal Mine provides sustainable growth. The total production capacity of Hongdunzi Coal Mine is 6.6 million tons, accounting for 49% of the company's production capacity at the end of 2021, of which Hongyi and Hong2 coal mines under construction (both 2.4 million tons and 60% equity) are expected to be put into production in 2022 and 2023 respectively.
Risk hint: the macro-economy is not as good as expected; coal prices fall more than expected.