The company released its 2021 annual report: achieved revenue of 35.4 billion yuan, an increase of 65% over the previous year, net profit of 2.25 billion yuan, an increase of 48% over the previous year, after deducting net profit of 2.04 billion yuan from non-attributable profit, an increase of 60% over the previous year. On a quarterly basis, 21Q4 revenue was 101 billion yuan, an increase of 44% over the previous year, net profit returned to the mother was 1.31 billion yuan, an increase of 53% over the previous year, net profit of net profit of 1,143 million yuan after deducting non-attributable profit was 1,143 million yuan, an increase of 65% over the previous year. Q1-3 net profit after deducting non-net profit was $130, 39 million, and 3.7 billion, respectively.
The company operates two main businesses, including an intelligent logistics service platform and chemical business. The core focus is on intelligent logistics. The business system is sorted out in the annual report: the “Transanhua Freight Network”, “Intelligent Highway Port”, and “Technology Finance” were formed. All 21 platforms achieved GTV98.752 billion yuan and operating profit of 497 million yuan, an increase of 145% over the previous year. We believe that the company's operations have the following highlights:
Highlight 1: Transanhua Freight Network: Digital freight, integration and upgrading, high business growth. On the basis of integrating the original products, the freight network has further upgraded and built the three major systems of vehicle service, LTL service, and cloud warehouse, among which:
1) Vehicle business: The scale entered the first tier of the industry, with a transaction volume of 20.3 billion yuan in 21, achieving revenue of 17.2 billion yuan, an increase of 154% over the previous year, and successfully promoted to a 5A network freight company with operating profit of 446 million yuan, an increase of 163.7% over the previous year; there were 200 service manufacturing enterprises, operating more than 750,000 vehicles. 2) LTL business: Launched in September 2021, it provides networked, standardized and digitized LTL digital freight services to manufacturing companies. GTV was 24 million yuan in '21, capacity was launched 12,000 lines, and 55 landing partners were signed. 3) The cloud warehouse business focuses on the four industries of chemicals, high technology, consumption, and automotive aftermarket, and focuses on leading companies in the industry to expand large customers.
Revenue in 2021 was 655 million yuan, an increase of 23% over the previous year, gross profit was 5.4%, and the number of items shipped from proprietary warehouses was 1,337 million, an increase of 97.5% over the previous year; it served 712 customers, and the area of self-operated warehouses nationwide reached 500,000 square meters, an increase of 30% over the previous year.
Highlight 2: The smart highway port business confirmed the beginning of a return cycle. 1) Finance: 2021 revenue was 1,345 billion yuan, an increase of 27.5% over the previous year, and the gross profit margin was 65.67%, an increase of 3.24 percentage points. The performance reached a record high, validating our previous in-depth report's judgment that Highway Port is gradually entering a performance release period. 2) Operation: The company has deployed 70 highway ports, of which 58 have been put into operation, 12 are under construction, with an operating area of 5.27 million square meters; the platform turnover in Hong Kong was 72 billion yuan, an increase of 14% over the previous year; the overall rental rate was 90%, an increase of 2 percentage points over the previous year; 10,800 enterprises occupied; and the annual traffic volume was 50,000 vehicles, an increase of 17% over the previous year. 3) Extension: Building a “Park +”
Product: The PV roof project covers 43 highway ports, with a total construction area of 1.94 million square meters and an installed capacity of distributed photovoltaics of 200 MW. After completion, the annual power generation capacity is expected to exceed 148 million kilowatts.
Investment suggestions: 1) Profit forecast: We slightly adjusted our profit forecast for '22 to achieve net profit of $2.29 billion (original forecast was 20.9), maintain a profit forecast of $2.48 billion in '23, and introduce a profit forecast of $2.69 billion in '24. Corresponding to 2022-24 EPS of $0.74, 0.81 and 0.87, respectively, and PE was 8, 7, and 7 times, respectively. Note: Due to unfulfilled performance promises, the company announced that it plans to repurchase 268 million shares held by Transanhua Group at a total price of 1 yuan and cancel them. After the cancellation is completed, the company's share capital will be reduced by 8.7%, corresponding to PE in '22. It is at a low level in the logistics industry and has a margin of safety. 2) Valuation: We maintain the method of segmented valuation of the company, that is, the online freight platform, traditional logistics business, and chemical business are given different PE valuations according to their respective attributes. The total one-year target market value of Transanhua Intelligent Connect is 26.6 billion yuan, corresponding to the target price of 8.67 yuan. Expected 49% increase from the current price. 3) Investment advice: The company's offline highway port is gradually entering a period of performance release, while the exploration and implementation of online platforms is expected to have upward flexibility. Online and offline collaboration is expected to push the integration of the port network into a new stage. Emphasize the “recommended” rating.
Risk warning: The epidemic has led to a sharp decline in road port traffic, and business expansion has fallen short of expectations
