Last week, the s & p 500 fell 2.75%, the Nasdaq composite index fell 3.8%, and the Nasdaq 100 index fell 3.9%. The s & p 500 is down 6.5% this month, while the Nasdaq composite index and Nasdaq 100 are down nearly 10%, the worst month since 2008.

After falling sharply last week, the three major indexes of US stocks all rose. JPMorgan Chase & Co and Morgan Stanley hold different views on whether US stocks will continue to fall next.

Xiao Mo sings good American stocks.

JPMorgan Chase & Co said that a large amount of money flowing into the stock market this week should help the stock market rebound and recover the big losses of the previous week. "given weak investor confidence, low positions, systemic strategic buying, seasonality and overselling, we believe the short-term stock market tends to rise," strategist Marko Kolanovic said in a report on Monday.

He also expects the rebalancing of fixed-weight portfolios at the end of the month to lead to large inflows into the stock market. Other positive factors for the stock market this week include option-related buying after monthly expiration, as well as a reversal of a large short selling in Gamma last week, and share buybacks will also increase.

Zhitong Finance previously reported that JPMorgan Chase & Co's team of strategists, led by Dubravko Lakos-Bujas and Marko Kolanovic, said the market was generally too pessimistic about the first-quarter results of companies in the S & P 500.

Statistics show that since the second quarter of 2020, the performance of most US stock companies has greatly exceeded analysts' expectations, and the proportion of exceeding expectations is generally high from the second quarter of 2020 to the fourth quarter of 2021. JPMorgan Chase & Co strategists expect that based on the key factor of "stronger-than-expected profit margins", the trend of exceeding expectations still exists, and expect the overall higher-than-expected range of companies in the index to reach 4-5 per cent in the first quarter.

He addedThe rise in Treasury yields is now over, and higher yields are good for the financial sector."historically, bank stocks have been closely related to bond yields, but there has been a gap between bank stocks and yields because of recent concerns about US economic growth," he said. If the rise in bond yields is no longer seen as policy blunder and short-lived, then the gap is likely to narrow. "

In addition to financial stocks, JPMorgan Chase & Co's global strategy team also increased its holdings in commodities, automotive and aviation sectors.

However, Kolanovic said first-quarter earnings forecasts could be an obstacle for companies, and guidance could be a catalyst for slower earnings in the second half of the year. "while we still expect $1,000bn in buybacks this year, shrinking profit margins and rising debt costs should be a drag on repurchase growth," Kolanovic said.

Big Motors sings bad American stocks

On Monday, Morgan Stanley analyst Michael J. Wilson said in a report that the S & P 500 is about to fall sharply because of investor concerns about sharp Fed tightening and recession; investors are trying to find a safe haven.

He warned: "Given the high prices of defensive stocks and absolutely little room to rise, the S & P 500 seems ready to enter a sustained bear market.It is not clear when the next market rotation will be. In our experience, when this happens, it usually means that the overall index is about to fall sharply, and almost all stocks are not immune. "

Second, Morgan Stanley, a strategist led by Graham Secker, said in a report that while the rapid jump in US real yields in recent weeks had a limited impact on global stock markets, that could soon change. "High real yields could be a drag on the stock market," Secker said. From now on, there is little room for stock valuations to offset further increases in real yields. "

Wilson points out that the defensive nature of large pharmaceuticals and biotech stocks has kept them outperforming the broader market in an environment of slowing earnings growth, slowing PMI and tighter monetary policy.