This report is read as follows:
The company's performance in 2021 is in line with expectations, 2
The volume and price of the company's graphite electrode products have risen in one year. Under the background of carbon neutralization, the concentration of graphite electrode industry will increase, the amount of superimposed scrap will increase, and the company, as the leader of the industry, will continue to benefit.
Main points of investment:
Maintain the "increase in holdings" rating. In 2021, the company achieved operating income of 4.652 billion yuan, up 31.44% from the same period last year, and realized net profit of 1.085 billion yuan, up 98.11% from the same period last year. The company's performance was in line with expectations. The company maintains the forecast that the EPS of the company in 2022-23 is 0.47max 0.53 yuan, and the newly added EPS in 2024 is 0.58 yuan, corresponding to the net profit of homing in 2022-24 is 17.94 pm 20.03 / 2.212 billion yuan respectively. Maintain the target price of 14.4 yuan and maintain the "overweight" rating.
The volume and price of core products have risen. In 2021, the company produced 196400 tons of graphite electrodes, an increase of 7.35 percent over the same period last year, with an average sales price of 1.99 million yuan per ton and a gross profit of 5270 yuan per ton, an increase of 465 yuan per ton over 2020. In 2021, the raw materials of graphite electrodes rose sharply, and the company relied on its own bargaining power, the effective transmission cost rose, and the gross profit per ton of products expanded. The production capacity of the company's Hefei base of 50,000 tons is still under construction, and we expect that the company's production will still have room to increase in the future.
The demand for graphite electrodes is steadily increasing. In 21 years, electric furnace steel accounted for 15% of the total output of crude steel in China, an increase of 5 percentage points over 2020. The proportion of electric furnace steel increases the demand for graphite electrodes. Under the background of carbon neutralization, the proportion of electric furnace steel may accelerate. We expect that the demand of graphite electrode industry will continue to rise.
Environmental protection and other factors promote the concentration of graphite electrode industry. The China carbon Industry Association implemented the air pollution emission standard for the carbon industry in 2019, and issued the "calculation method of carbon dioxide Emission from carbon products" in 2021 according to the requirements of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology. The environmental protection requirements of the carbon industry are gradually increasing. We expect that environmental protection and other factors will gradually eliminate the backward production capacity of the industry by raising production costs, and the concentration of the carbon industry is expected to be further increased. As a leading enterprise in the carbon industry, the company will benefit from the improvement of industry concentration.
Risk hint: the iron and steel industry production limit exceeded expectations.