The 21-year return net profit decreased by 20.0% compared with the same period last year, maintaining the "overweight" rating.
The company released its annual report on April 25, with a 21-year revenue of 2.7 billion yuan (yoy+12.42%) and a net profit of 176 million yuan (yoy-20.0%), which was basically consistent with the previous performance of KuaiBao (2022-006). The net profit of 21Q4 and 22Q1 is 0.19 and 32 million yuan (yoy-35%,-36% yoy-35%, + 67%), and the performance of 22Q1 is improved compared with the previous month. Taking into account the impact of the company's capacity expansion and export tax rebate policy adjustment, we adjust the relevant assumptions. It is estimated that the company's EPS in 22-24 is 0.55, 0.63, 0.71 yuan, respectively, comparable to the company's average 2022PE 11.4x. Considering the company's new project production and future production expansion expectations, give the company 12.4xPE valuation (2022E), corresponding to the target price of 6.82 yuan (previous value 7.86 yuan). Maintain the "overweight" rating.
Affected by the adjustment of export tax rebate policy and the fluctuation of raw material prices, the company's gross profit margin is year-on-year-4.13pct
According to the company's annual report and operating data announcement, the company sold 49900 tons of seamless tubes in 2021 (yoy+29.4%), with an average price of 347,000 yuan per ton (yoy-11.1%). The sales volume of welded pipe is 37300 tons (yoy+11.2%), and the average price is 2400000 yuan / ton (yoy+2.9%). The company's comprehensive gross profit margin of 14.14% (yoy-4.13pct) in 2021, mainly due to the export tax rebate policy adjustment and raw material price fluctuations, the company's profit margin has been compressed. The expense rate during the company period in 2021 was 6.36% (yoy-0.63pct), mainly due to a reduction in financial expenses such as bank loan interest expenses and exchange losses. In addition, the company's 22Q1 seamless pipe sales of 10400 tons (yoy-17.8%), the average price of 379,000 yuan / ton (yoy+5.12%), welded pipe sales of 5600 tons (yoy-22.2%), the average price of 268000 yuan / ton (yoy+13.5%).
It is optimistic that the demand of the petrochemical industry downstream of the company is expected to maintain a good performance under the high oil price.
According to the company announcement, the main customers of the company's products are distributed in petrochemical, natural gas, power equipment manufacturing, machinery and equipment manufacturing and other industries, accounting for 40.06% of the revenue of the petrochemical industry in 2021 (yoy+4.51pct). Affected by the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the average price of ICE oil in 2022 was US $98.9 per barrel (as of April 25), an increase of 39.7% over the average price in 2021, and oil prices remained high. According to the annual reports of Petrochina and China Petroleum & Chemical, oil prices have been rising in the past 21 years, and the oil and gas industry is in a high business cycle. The combined value of the 22-year capital expenditure plans of Petrochina and China Petroleum & Chemical is 5.0% higher than the actual value in 21 years. Of this total, exploration and production increased by 6.6% compared with the same period last year. The demand of petrochemical industry is expected to maintain a good performance.
The company's production capacity continues to expand, and downstream demand is expected to pick up and maintain the "overweight" rating.
According to the company's annual report, the company's annual output of 3500 tons of precision super-long stainless steel pipe project will be put into production in October 2021. In addition, the company plans to issue convertible bonds to build a high-performance stainless steel seamless pipe project with an annual production capacity of 20,000 tons for high-end equipment. The company's production capacity is expected to continue to expand. Taking into account the impact of the company's capacity expansion and the adjustment of the export tax rebate policy, we estimate that the company's EPS in 22-24 will be 0.55 yuan 0.63 shock 0.71 yuan respectively, valuing the company's 12.4xPE (2022E), corresponding to the target price of 6.82 yuan, and maintaining the "overweight" rating.
Risk hint: macroeconomic growth is lower than expected and downstream demand is lower than expected.
