Performance review
2021 performance is in line with our expectations, and 1Q22 performance is lower than expected.
The company announced 2021 and 1Q22 results: 2021 revenue of 3.31 billion yuan, year-on-year + 53%; return to the mother net profit of 380 million yuan, + 48% year-on-year. 4Q21's income was 930 million yuan, + 28% year-on-year and-7% compared with the same period last year, while the net profit returned to its mother was 92.39 million yuan, + 5% year-on-year and-13% month-on-month. The 21-year performance is in line with expectations.
1Q22's income is 770 million yuan, 30% from the same period last year,-17% from the previous year, and 64.22 million yuan from the same period last year. The number of replacement power stations is lower than expected, which makes the performance of 1Q22 lower than expected.
Trend of development
Machine tool business continued to reduce losses, during the expense rate improved, R & D investment increased to expand new energy business. In 21 years, the company's high-end equipment business income of 220 million yuan, year-on-year-32.9%; of which the machine tool business gross profit margin of 8.8%, year-on-year + 11.6ppt, turn losses into profits. During the period of the company, the expense rate is 9.6% in 21 years, 8.8% in 1Q22 and 8.8% in the same period of the same period compared with the same period last year. The cost control result is remarkable. The company's 21-year R & D expenditure rate of 4.8%, year-on-year + 0.6ppt, is mainly used to expand new energy businesses such as chargers, lithium battery packs and their supporting products, as well as the construction of power stations. The business income of battery pack and charger in 21 years is 840 million yuan, which is + 17% compared with the same period last year. We believe that the company's new energy business is growing rapidly and is expected to continue to contribute to the increase in performance.
In 21 years, the revenue of power tools business increased as scheduled, profits were under pressure, and the growth outlook for 22 years was relatively conservative. In 21 years, the company's core business power tools accessories sector income of 1.34 billion yuan, + 30.1% compared with the same period last year, mainly due to the relatively strong downstream demand and the company's leading position in the industry, fully enjoy the industry expansion dividend. In terms of profitability, the 21-year gross profit margin of power tools is 23.9%, year-on-year-3.5ppt, mainly due to the rise in raw material prices and sea freight. Looking ahead, we expect the industry demand for power tools 22amp to be flat / + 5% year-on-year in 23 years, so we have a conservative outlook for the power tools business.
The profitability of the power exchange business 2H21 improved month-on-month, and the epidemic affected the construction progress of the 1Q22 exchange power station, which remained unchanged for the whole year for the time being. In 21, the business income of changing power stations was 790 million yuan, + 3283% year-on-year, gross profit margin 10.95%, year-on-year-2.43ppt, net profit rate 4.98%, higher 3.74ppt than 1H21. 1Q22 was affected by the epidemic. NIO Inc., the company's main customer, built about 107 power stations, which was slower than we had expected. In the short term, NIO Inc. still maintains the target of replacing more than 1300 power stations by the end of 22, corresponding to the construction of nearly 600 in 22 years. We expect the delivery of the company's power station replacement project to be accelerated after the recovery of the epidemic. In the long run, we think that power change is an effective supplement to fast charging, slow charging and other ways of replenishing energy. with more car companies laying out the power exchange track, we are more optimistic about the market space of changing power stations in the future.
Profit forecast and valuation
Affected by the epidemic and raw materials, the 23-year net profit was reduced by 10.4% to 402 million yuan / 484 million yuan. The current share price corresponds to a price-to-earnings ratio of 10.1 times / 8.4 times earnings for 22 times 23 years. Maintain the outperform industry rating, taking into account the improvement in the profitability of the company's switching power station business, we value the business using Phammer E. Due to the current downward valuation center of the industry as a whole, the target price is lowered by 51% to 12.0 yuan corresponding to 13.2 Universe 10.9 times the 23-year price-to-earnings ratio of 22 Placement, with 30.7% upside space.
Risk.
The exchange rate penetration rate is lower than expected, and exchange rate fluctuations affect the company's profitability.
