This report is read as follows:
The planned investment in Anhui expressway during the 14th five-year Plan increased by 175%, the investment in 22Q1 increased by 37%, and the planned net profit increased by 10% in 22 years (7% in 2021). It is proposed that 5.98 yuan per share will be awarded 1360 million stock incentives (approved by SASAC).
Main points of investment:
Maintain and increase holdings. Maintain the pre-forecast 2022-24 EPS1.00/1.11/1.23 yuan increase by 18 / 11 10%. The performance of Anhui Investment Jump Company accelerated, raising the target price to 16.12 yuan, corresponding to 16 times PE in 22 years.
The increase in 22Q1 net profit accelerated by 12%, and the cash flow improved and the profit level increased. 1) 22Q1 revenue increased by 530 million compared with 17% month-on-month increase (21Q1-Q4 revenue increased by 30% ash 53% shock 19%); 22Q1 net profit increased by 12% compared with the same period last year; 22Q1 net profit increased by 12% compared with the same period last year (21Q1-Q4 net profit increased by 3% ash 11% by 12% compared with the same period last year); and the impairment was 25 million (+ 148%) because the impairment of contract assets was higher than the same period last year. 2) 22Q1 gross margin 39.3% (21 full year 33.0%), net profit 21.0% (21 full year 16.5%), weighted ROE3.79% (+ 0.05pct).
3) operating cash flow-140 million (- 8.1%), asset-liability ratio 31.0% (34.3% at the end of 21 years).
The order on hand is 6.6 billion yuan with an increase of 28%. The 22-year performance plan is 10% higher than 7% in 21 years. 1) New contracts signed in 21 years are 4 billion (+ 6%), of which 3.3 billion are newly signed in the province, 1.8 billion (+ 22%) in revenue, 700 million in revenue outside the province, 600 million (+ 27%) in revenue, and 2.3 billion (+ 5%) in new 21H2 contracts. 2) the newly signed sub-business, survey and design contracts 2.5 billion (+ 16%), project management contracts 200 million (+ 13%), project general contract 1.3 billion; 3) 6.6 billion (+ 28%) on-hand orders by the end of 2021; 4) in 2022, the company's business plan is to achieve an annual revenue increase of 10% and 40%, and home net profit of 10% and 30%.
Investment in Anhui expressway during the 14th five-year Plan increased by 175%, and the company's equity incentive was approved by the State-owned assets Supervision and Administration Commission. 1) Anhui completed transportation investment of 19.3 billion yuan in the first quarter with an increase of 32.4%, of which 8.1 billion yuan for expressways increased by 36.8%. Investment in highways in the 14th five-year Plan increased by 175%. 2) in 22, the number of concentrated starts / total investment of the second batch of major projects in Anhui increased by 41.2% / 56.1% respectively compared with the first batch, and the total planned investment of new projects in Anhui Province increased by 91.5% in the first quarter. 3) as of April 20, the progress of direct capital expenditure in Anhui Province is 43%, 12.4% when it is out of order, and 57.9% at the provincial level. Direct funds have been implemented, accounting for 97.8% of the allocated funds. 4) the company intends to grant 13.6 million restricted stock incentives at 5.98 yuan per share (approved by SASAC), and the assessment target ROE will not be less than 13.74% in three years.
Risk hints: macro policies tighten beyond expectations, infrastructure investment is lower than expected, epidemic situation is repeated, and so on.