Event
The company released its 2021 annual report: 2021 revenue of 1.253 billion yuan / + 54.9%, net profit of 70 million yuan / + 10.4%, net profit of 60 million yuan / + 7.24%; net cash flow of operating activities-30 million yuan /-135.6% (basic) of 0.36 yuan per share, a year-on-year decrease of-14.29% (weighted) to 9.99%, a decrease of 2.56pct.
It is proposed to distribute a cash dividend of 1.05 yuan (including tax) to all shareholders for every 10 shares.
Brief comment
21Q4 revenue reached a new high in a single quarter, and the gross profit margin and net profit margin decreased under the increase in the proportion of gold categories.
The revenue of 21Q1, Q2 and Q3 companies increased by 161.1%, 14.37% and 19.0% respectively. The revenue of Magi 21Q4 was 377 million yuan / + 65.3%, a record high in a single quarter, mainly due to the rapid expansion of e-commerce business. The net profit of 21Q4 is 896.8 million yuan / + 7.2%, which is mainly due to the increase in the proportion of gold jewelry with low gross profit margin. 21Q4 gross profit margin is 14.62% / year-on-year-8.6pct and net profit rate is 2.38% / year-on-1.29pct.
The income of gold has increased rapidly in the past 21 years, and the income of jewelry has been basically flat. According to the category, benefiting from the trend of gold jewelry, the income of plain gold jewelry in 21 years is 951 million yuan / + 87.8%, and the income of mosaic jewelry is 298 million yuan /-0.15%. The 21-year performance grew by 10.4%, which was lower than the 54.9% growth rate of revenue, mainly due to the increase in the proportion of plain gold products with low gross margin to 75.9%. Overall gross profit margin 20.0%/-8.21pct for 2021. The net operating cash flow is-3017.9 yuan /-135.6%, which is due to a large increase in cash outflow due to the increase in the stock of gold products.
The high growth of channels such as Vipshop Holdings Limited has led to the outstanding performance of e-commerce. According to different channels, the revenue of direct stores, e-commerce, counter, franchise and consignment sales in 21 years was 1.43,2.57,4.91,3.49 and 9 million yuan, an increase of 27.3%, 157.6%, 31.3%, 62.9% and 92.7% respectively. E-commerce channels comprehensively increase the scale of online sales through professional teams, e-commerce bases, channel cooperation and expansion, live streaming and other ways. Vipshop Holdings Limited's channel revenue in 21 years of e-commerce business is 125 million yuan / + 1091.7%. The channel revenue of WeChat Mall is 89.8 million yuan / + 52.8%, Tmall's flagship store revenue is 42.1 million yuan / + 38.1%, and the proportion of overall e-commerce revenue has risen to 20.52%/+8.18pct.
Based in Zhejiang Province, speed up the layout of non-provincial stores, the company joined to speed up the pace of store opening, a net increase of 36 stores in 21 years. The company continues to optimize the channel structure, currently covering Zhejiang, Jiangsu, Anhui, Shanghai, Hubei and other eight provinces and municipalities. By the end of the 21st, the company had 206terminal stores, with 54 new stores and 18 closed stores, a net increase of 36, which was significantly faster than that of 8 or 9 in 2019 and 2020. among them, there are 29 direct stores (5 net increase), 73 over-the-counter stores (4 net increase) and 104 joining stores (27 net increase, of which 15 are new outside Zhejiang Province). From a regional point of view, revenue from Hangzhou, Ningbo, other areas within Zhejiang Province and outside Zhejiang Province is 341 million yuan, 182 million yuan, 363 million yuan, 110 million yuan and 257 million yuan respectively. With the promotion of the layout of stores outside the province, the proportion of revenue from outside the province has increased to 8.8%/+1.2pct, and the revenue growth rate of offline channels is the fastest, reaching 79.2%.
Launch and cultivate diamond brand "Mucan", take the lead in laying out the domestic diamond market. In terms of brands, the company meets the needs of different consumers through a multi-brand strategy, and the core brand Mancaron is upgraded iteratively, focusing on young women aged 25-35 in the workplace. At present, the company has launched Mancaron jewelry, a brand that focuses on high-end gold products, and a brand matrix that cultivates the diamond brand "Mucan". Among them, the "Mucan" brand is targeted at intelligent women. The goal is to build a fashionable jewelry brand in China.
Profit forecast: the company's revenue from 2022 to 2024 is expected to be 17.56,23.22 and 2.911 billion yuan, an increase of 40.2%, 32.2% and 25.4% respectively, and the return net profit is 0.83,1.01 and 124 million yuan, an increase of 17.5%, 22.7% and 22.1% respectively, corresponding to a PE of 41, 33 and 27x in 22-24.
Risk hint: the consumption boom is not as good as expected and the expansion outside the province is not as expected.
