This report is read as follows:
The economies of scale brought about by continuous production expansion are expected to maintain high gross profit margins. At present, the company's market share is less than 30%, and the share is expected to increase rapidly under the exuberant production. The market in new areas is large, and the company is actively expanding new products and new areas to open up new growth poles.
Main points of investment:
Conclusion: the 21-year revenue of the company is 443 million / + 104.77%, and the net profit is 189 million / + 130.56%. Q4 single-quarter revenue 124 million / + 82.95%, return to the mother net profit of 4724 yuan / + 154.36%, in line with expectations. Considering the continuous production expansion of the harmonic reducer, the company will maintain EPS 2.22,2.87 yuan in 2022-23, add 3.75 yuan in EPS forecast in 2024, maintain the target price of 182.67 yuan, and increase its holdings.
The advantage of scale is significant, and the high gross profit margin is expected to be maintained under the continuous expansion of production. Gross margin + 5.33pct, due to economies of scale. Direct materials also increased by 132.26%, which is higher than the revenue growth rate, and the rising price of raw materials brings cost pressure.
The proportion of direct labor cost and manufacturing cost is-1.76pct and-7.77pct respectively, and the advantage of scale effect is significant. Q4 has a net increase of 52.23 million yuan in fixed assets, corresponding to an expansion of about 50,000 units, with a total production capacity of nearly 300000 units.
It has a capacity of 500000 units and is expected to continue to expand production in 2022. Under the advantage of scale, the gross profit margin is expected to be maintained.
The share of the harmonic reducer is large, and the production is expected to improve rapidly. Harmonic reducer sales of 256600 / + 131.47%, faster than China's industrial robot production growth (44.90%), the company's share increased rapidly. We judge that the overall production in 22 years is expected to exceed 350000 units, corresponding to the harmonic reducer demand of about 1 million units, the company has more room to increase its market share. Inventory year-on-year + 40.79%, a record high, of which semi-finished products increased by 138.43%, accounting for + 16.44pct, and the market share is expected to increase rapidly under exuberant production.
The non-robot field is expanding rapidly and is expected to become a new growth pole. The parts of CNC machine tools and medical devices are increasing rapidly, and the downstream fields of non-robots are expanding rapidly. The company's mechatronics products can be used as the end shaft turntable of metal cutting machine tools, suitable for high-precision scenarios, and the market is expected to be between $8 billion and $1 billion, which is equivalent to the harmonic reducer used in industrial robots. At present, the company is actively expanding machine tools, medical, semiconductors and other fields and micro electro-hydraulic servo and other new products, is expected to open a new growth pole.
Risk hint: production and sales of industrial robots have fallen sharply, and new product development is not as expected.
