CITIC: market sentiment has fallen back to its low since 2018, and the medium-and long-term performance-to-price ratio of the current index is prominent.

Judging by the structural characteristics of transaction congestion, recent capital outflows mainly come from hot money and retail investors, judging by valuation, redemption and position, institutional-side capital adjustment and reduction are coming to an end, and market sentiment has fallen back to its low since 2018.

The dynamic price-to-earnings ratio of major indices has also fallen below 25 per cent since 2010, with the main blue-chip index below 10 per cent since 2018. The fundamentals of long-term improvement in China's economy will not change, and the medium-and long-term allocation of the current index will be highlighted.

It is expected that the target of stable growth for the whole year will remain unchanged, with the weakening of the impact of the epidemic and the end of the quarterly report, the US dollar will raise interest rates as scheduled, and the three main lines of infrastructure, real estate, and consumption are expected to recover synchronously in May, and the market for medium-term repair is gradually approaching. It is suggested that we should continue to keep a firm grip on the main line of growth and firmly lay out the varieties with low valuations and expected low levels.

Haitong: at present, it is in the layout period from the bottom of policy to the end of performance.

① fund net worth has fallen by more than 20% so far this year. Monetary policy was tight in 2008, 11 and 18 before this phenomenon, while macro policy is loose this year, similar to 12 or 16 years.

The order in which the market bottomed out in the history of ② is as follows: high dividend stocks > broad base index > fund heavy position stocks, and fund heavy position stocks have fallen more recently, among which the valuations of growth stocks have been on the historical low side.

③ draws lessons from history, and the period between the bottom of the policy and the bottom of the performance is the layout period. At this stage, we will gradually focus on consumption related to economic recovery around the main line of stable growth, such as financial real estate and new infrastructure (more flexible).

Guotai Junan Securities: the market has entered the bottoming out stage, and the allocation value is expected to appear gradually.

The market has entered the bottoming stage, and the allocation value is expected to appear gradually. Investment style in sectors with low-risk characteristics, layout of cycles and consumption related to steady growth.

Stock selection ideas: stocks with low valuation, performance and performance determination.

Industry recommendation:

1) hold physical assets and have the direction of stable cash flow: coal, chemical resource products, second-tier central state-owned enterprise real estate, banks

2) Public investment directions dominated by government expenditure: construction, power grid, wind and solar power.

3) the dilemma is reversed, and the core focuses on supply-side in-depth optimization: live pigs, liquor and consumer services, while Q2 focuses on the appearance of investment opportunities in consumer building materials and iron and steel.

CSC FINANCIAL CO.,LTD: build U-shaped bottom and bargain-seeking layout

From a medium-term perspective, we continue to maintain the judgment that A-shares are building a U-shaped bottom area. On the one hand, the policy floor and credit floor may have been roughly confirmed, and the follow-up profit floor will also be gradually completed in the medium term; on the other hand, the valuation and mood indicators of the market have also entered the bottom area of the market, although it is still possible to continue to decline in the future, but the space is relatively limited in terms of odds. Therefore, although the market bottoming process may continue to repeat from a medium-term perspective, investors need not be overly pessimistic and should wait patiently for the market to complete the construction of a U-shaped bottom.

During the market bottoming period, investors should wait patiently for the market to complete the construction of the U-shaped bottom. from a medium-and long-term perspective, there is no need to be overly pessimistic, but should consider the defensive counterattack and bargain-hunting layout.

Defense and counterattack:

1) Urban commercial banks, agricultural commercial banks, water and electricity stocks and other high dividend varieties are still the first choice for bottom warehouse allocation.

2) according to the epidemic experience, the necessary sectors such as food processing have excess earnings during the peak period of diagnosed population, and they have relatively countercyclical profit fluctuations in the profit downward period.

3) Textile and clothing is a typical must-choose consumer plate, at the same time, the recent devaluation of RMB is expected to be strong, both offensive and defensive in the short term.

Bargain-hunting layout, post-epidemic repair and steady growth:

1) Post-epidemic recovery can be carried out at both the production side and the consumer side, and the production side repair is mainly focused on logistics, cars, etc., and the consumer side repair, aiming at the higher allocation value of the necessary consumption (agricultural products processing, food processing) + local consumption (Hong Kong stock catering, snack food, medical services, film and television, etc.) with reasonable valuation and faster repair speed and higher certainty in this round.

2) the real estate is still in the structure where the policy continues to make efforts but the data have not yet picked up. Expectations for policy are expected to continue until property data clearly pick up.

3) the capital construction has been clearly carried out, and the prosperity of building materials is guaranteed.

China International Capital Corporation: the A-share sentiment indicator "bottomed out", we still need to wait for a more clear inflection point to appear.

Current market characteristics:

1) from the transaction level, the corresponding turnover rate of recent transactions in the market has been close to 2%, which is at a historical low, and the net reduction of industrial capital has also declined significantly.

2) from the point of view of valuation, after adjustment, the equity risk premium of CSI 300 is close to 1 times the standard deviation above the average value, and close to the extreme level of valuation at the low point in March 2020.

3) from the perspective of market behavior, there are signs of a decline in the relatively stable growth style in the early stage; 4) in terms of policy, recently, many departments, such as the Central Bank, the Securities Regulatory Commission, the Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission, and safe, have taken a positive stand on the recent economic situation and the capital market environment, and resolutely maintain economic and market stability.

We believe that at present, some bottom characteristics have been shown in terms of policy, valuation, capital and behavior signals, and fundamental signals combined with the current growth environment may need time to wait for a more clear inflection point to emerge. we still maintain the judgment that the market is in a "grinding bottom" period, although the short-term market may still be repeated, but in the medium to long term, the opportunities gradually outweigh the risks, and there is no need to be too pessimistic about the future performance.

Structurally, we believe that the undervalued "steady growth" area still has a certain allocation value, pay attention to the bottom-up stock selection opportunities in the consumer sector, and it may still be time to create a growth style.

The current focus is on three directions:

1) in the "bottom grinding" stage of the market, the stable growth sectors with relatively low valuations may still have relative benefits in the current macro environment, such as traditional infrastructure, real estate demand related industrial chains (real estate, building materials, construction, home appliances, home furnishings, etc.), etc.

2) consumption in the middle and lower reaches with more previous adjustments, low valuation and clear medium-and long-term prospects, bottom-up stock selection, including household appliances, light industry and household, automobiles and spare parts, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishing, medicine, etc.

3) risks in manufacturing growth sectors, including new energy vehicles, new energy and technology hardware semiconductors, have been released, but the upturn lies in whether the risk of "stagflation", global liquidity and market sentiment can be improved marginally.

Societe Generale Securities: the pessimistic expectation of the market has been reflected in the stock price to a large extent and will shift from overall adjustment to structural differentiation.

The recent rapid devaluation of the RMB exchange rate has once again disturbed the market. However, from the following three aspects, we believe that it is not a systemic risk, but more short-term emotional shock:

1) Foreign capital is not far away but is still flowing in.

2) the domestic policy is "dominated by us", and the devaluation of RMB does not constitute a restriction on monetary easing. Follow-up monetary and credit policies are still expected to be further relaxed, providing strong support for stabilizing the macroeconomic market.

3) as enterprises continue to resume work and production, and the impact of the epidemic on the supply chain gradually alleviates, exports are expected to pick up and continue to support RMB demand, and the pressure on RMB depreciation will also weaken.

A number of indicators, the market pessimistic expectations have been largely reflected in the stock price. Looking back, the market will shift from overall adjustment to structural differentiation, and it is recommended to focus on three directions.

1) Real estate infrastructure: the direction of policy easing has been clear, and the recent rebound in the epidemic has further increased the space and intensity of follow-up policy easing. At the same time, global markets are still in a mess of high volatility and low risk appetite. Real estate, infrastructure, banking and other sectors are both security and policy-driven.

2) consumption core assets: on the one hand, benefit from the gradual improvement of the domestic epidemic situation. On the other hand, plate stock prices and valuations are already at a low level, and internal and external uncertainties can advance and retreat.

3) in May, the "new half army" may usher in a window of repair: the "new half army" has adjusted substantially since the beginning of the year. With the quarterly results window over, supply chain shocks mitigated, Fed interest rate raising 50bp boots landing, and combined with the judgment of the leading indicators of our "new half army" timing framework, in May we believe that the "new half army" is expected to usher in a wave of repair window, which is recommended to be selected from the bottom up combining valuation and performance certainty.

China Merchants: from mid-late April to early May, A shares may usher in the starting point of the upward cycle.

We believe that positive signals are emerging at present, and the higher-than-expected growth rate of medium-and long-term social finance and the location of valuation constitute the most important signal that A shares are bottoming out. In some areas, the epidemic situation is improving, the resumption of production and work is under way, and the material flow index continues to rebound, creating conditions for the start of stable growth projects. With the accelerated improvement of the new social finance, the export increase effect brought about by the devaluation of RMB may be more conducive to improving economic expectations, and the marginal upward increase in the net holdings of industrial capital will also contribute to market stability.

All in all, A shares are likely to usher in the starting point of the upward cycle from mid-late April to early May, which may be at the bottom of the area. the follow-up main line can focus on the accelerated start of new and old infrastructure, policies and demand, as well as some optional consumption driven by RMB depreciation.

Huaan Securities: the failure of the expected interest rate cut does not hinder the follow-up of the policy, and the bottom-building pattern of concussion remains unchanged.

In March, LPR did not fall under the overall weakening of economic data, and expectations of interest rate cuts failed and the overseas Federal Reserve accelerated monetary policy tightening to continue to suppress A shares. Domestic monetary policy continues to exercise restraint, the tone of reasonable and abundant short-term liquidity is expected to remain unchanged in the short term, and the policy of "steady growth" is expected to make further efforts in new and old infrastructure, promotion fees, and stable real estate. Market concerns about stable growth policies are expected to be responded to at a meeting of the politburo at the end of April, boosting risk appetite. Therefore, in the shock bottom, it is suggested to continue to maintain a balanced allocation and pay attention to the investment clues of the meeting of the political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee at the end of April.

Industry configuration: continue to overmatch stable growth and consumption style, medium-and long-term gradual layout of growth main line continue to overmatch stable growth and consumption style, medium-and long-term gradual layout of growth main line. In the third week of April, the market fell again, with the Shanghai Composite Index and the gem Index falling 3.87% and 6.66% respectively, and the Shanghai Stock Exchange continued to outperform the gem.

From a sub-industry point of view, the consumption style is relatively resistant, with textile and clothing, beauty care, and food and beverage performance relatively dominant; the steady growth chain retracts sharply, with poor performance in real estate, iron and steel, coal, building materials and other industries; growth industries are mediocre except for communications.

Looking forward to the last week before the May Day short holiday, before the national epidemic improves significantly and the inflection point of external US bond yields goes down, the probability of a significant increase in A-share risk appetite is still low. Therefore, it is suggested that the balanced allocation should be maintained and focus on the policy signals that may be released by the Politburo meeting at the end of April.

Yue Kai Securities: a shares are still in the bottom period, and there is still room for financial and real estate.

At present, the market is in the stage of profit decline, and the upsurge of the epidemic is the main reason for constraining the economy. At present, the yield on 10-year treasury bonds is still low, hovering between 2.7% and 2.8%. The so-called fists cannot be hit on cotton, and there will be a rhythm in the implementation of the policy before the epidemic improves. Therefore, A shares are still in a bottoming period.

In addition, at present, in the window of annual report performance and quarterly report forecast performance disclosure, superimposing the impact of external factors (Russia-Ukraine conflict and repeated epidemic situation), we recommend that we continue to pay attention to three relatively clear main lines:

1) there is still room for financial real estate. Although real estate growth continues to decline in the economic data released in the first quarter, the stable growth sector is indeed the direction with the least resistance before the current credit inflection point. Continue to focus on earnings in the policy margin loosening expectations of low-valued real estate and real estate chain stabilizing expectations of banks and new and old infrastructure.

2) the sector with high performance. At present, it is in a period of intensive disclosure of annual and quarterly results, and the market will return to the verification of fundamentals. with the continuous promotion of the policy of cutting reserve requirements and interest rates, we can pay attention to the high-growth main line with fully adjusted and core competitive advantages for a long time, focusing on the sectors and stocks with prominent neutral-price ratios in semiconductor and new energy races.

3) the consumer sector benefited from the narrowing of the scissors gap. The disturbance of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine is still the focus of the market's attention to inflation, and the geo-conflict has brought global inflation. Returning to the A-share market, the cyclical plate represented by commodities may be close to the top under the national policy of stable supply and supply. In the long run, we can pay attention to the consumer sectors such as food and beverage, household appliances, medicine and biology brought about by the increase in demand under the repair of the epidemic, as well as the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishing industries brought about by the pig cycle.

Huaxi Securities: continue to shake to the bottom, the value of blue chip is dominant

Shock to the bottom, blue-chip value is dominant. Since April, the game characteristics of market stock are obvious, and investors tend to be cautious under multiple disturbance factors at home and abroad. At the overseas level, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine has exacerbated the risk of stagflation in the global economy, and the Fed's expectation of raising interest rates has risen again, even raising interest rates by 75 basis points at a single time; domestically, the epidemic has further increased downward pressure on the economy, and some enterprises have not yet resumed normal production.

Looking back, the rebound in market risk appetite needs to wait for more fundamentals and policy signals to be verified, such as the trend of the epidemic, the progress of enterprises resuming work and production, and the tone set at the meeting of the Politburo in April. Prior to this, A-shares will still be "shock bottom"-based.