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天奇股份(002009):业绩高速增长 电池回收量利齐升

Tianqi Co., Ltd. (002009): rapid growth in performance, battery recovery

東方財富證券 ·  Apr 25, 2022 07:01  · Researches

The company released the 2021 annual report, during the reporting period, the company achieved operating income of 3.78 billion yuan (year-on-year + 5.2%), return-to-mother net profit of 150 million yuan (year-on-year + 146.8%), and non-return net profit of 88 million yuan (year-on-year + 1819.8%). Among them, in the fourth quarter, the company realized operating income of 1.02 billion yuan (year-on-year-2.4%, month-on-month-6.7%), return-to-mother net profit of 4 million yuan (year-on-year-48.2%, month-on-month-94.1%), deducting non-return net profit of-39 million yuan. At the same time, the company pays a cash dividend of 0.30 yuan (including tax) for every 10 shares to all shareholders on the basis of 379 million shares.

Profits in other businesses shrank, and the company's performance growth was boosted by the lithium cycle plate. The core subsidiary Jintai Pavilion achieved revenue of 990 million yuan (year-on-year + 144%) and home net profit of 220 million yuan (year-on-year + 656%). On the one hand, it is mainly due to the increase in production capacity and recovery rate. Cobalt production increased from 1400 gold tons in 2020 to 1887 gold tons in 2021, nickel production increased from 592 gold tons to 1024 gold tons, and lithium carbonate production increased from 1150 gold tons to 1792 gold tons. At the same time, the average metal recovery rate of nickel, cobalt and manganese is 98%, and the average recovery rate of lithium is 85%, which is in the leading level in the industry. On the other hand, the price of nickel, cobalt and lithium carbonate rose sharply in 2021, which led to an improvement in the company's profitability.

Lithium prices remained high in 2022, and production capacity continued to expand, supporting rapid performance growth. According to the pricing model of ternary waste, the rising price of lithium carbonate will lead to a profitable expansion of the company. We predict that lithium prices will remain high in 2022 and the profitability of the company's battery recycling business will remain high. At the same time, the company has stepped up its capacity construction, and the technical transformation and expansion of lithium battery cycle will be put into production in the second quarter, with a production capacity of 9000 gold tons of cobalt-manganese-nickel and 4000 tons of lithium carbonate in 2022 and 12 thousand gold tons of cobalt-manganese-nickel and 5000 tons of lithium carbonate in 2023. In addition, the company has laid out the construction of a production line of 50,000 tons of lithium iron phosphate, which is expected to be put into production in September 2023, and will form a recycling capacity of 50,000 tons of ternary and lithium iron waste batteries by the end of 2023.

Make use of the synergy advantage of the automobile industry chain to build the recycling channel barrier. In the competition of battery recycling industry, stable and high-quality sources of battery waste will become one of the core elements of competition among enterprises.

The company's historical main business deeply ploughs the automobile industry chain and maintains a good cooperative relationship with the whole vehicle. In the future, automobile enterprises will be the main responsibility for battery recycling, and the cooperation between the company and automobile enterprises to build battery recycling channels can give full play to their synergy advantages. In addition, the company cooperates with car companies and social traders to establish recycling bases in key cities across the country, which further ensures the stability of the company's future supply of waste batteries and further establishes its channel advantages.

[investment advice]

The first batch of power batteries in China is about to enter the decommissioning stage, and the lithium battery recycling market is ushering in a period of rapid development.

The company's lithium recovery business is in a leading position in the industry: at the technical end, the average recovery rate of nickel, cobalt and manganese metal is more than 98%, and the recovery rate of lithium carbonate is 85%. At the channel end, the company's historical main business is deeply ploughing the automobile industry chain. form a good cooperative relationship with car companies, and recently build a recycling base with car enterprises and social traders to further consolidate channel advantages. On this basis, the company accelerates production capacity construction and lays the foundation for subsequent performance growth. From 2022 to 2024, we expect the company to achieve operating income of 4.541 billion yuan, 5.574 billion yuan and 6.932 billion yuan respectively, net profit of 372 million yuan, 508 million yuan and 620 million yuan, EPS of 0.98 yuan, 1.34 yuan and 1.64 yuan, and 17 times, 12 times and 10 times of PE respectively.

[risk Tip]

The progress of capacity expansion is not as expected.

There is uncertainty about the trend of metal prices.

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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