The leading position is stable. Due to the influence of the epidemic, it was downgraded to "increase holding" rating Ximai Food's revenue of 1.15 billion yuan in 2021, an increase of 12.6% over the same period last year, and the net profit of returning to its mother was 104 million yuan, down 21.1% from the same period last year. The company has the first market share in the country in 2021, and the offline channel market share is far ahead, and the offline advantage is solid. However, due to the influence of the epidemic and the cold food oat industry entering the adjustment period, we downgrade the 2022-2023 profit forecast and add the 2024 profit forecast. It is estimated that the 2022-2024 return net profit is 1.22,1.41 (- 0.78) and 160 million yuan, EPS is 0.55,0.63,0.72 yuan respectively, and the current stock price is 29.1,25.3,22.2 times corresponding to PE. Downgrade to "overweight" rating.
Revenue is growing steadily and compound oatmeal is outstanding.
Revenue of 2021Q4 Ximai Foods increased 6.9% compared with the same period last year. Specific sub-product point of view: 2021Q4 pure oats basically flat; "oats +" category of new products moving sales better, faster growth, composite oats performance bright eyes, faster growth; 2021Q4 increased cold food oat delivery efforts, a higher base, and cold food oats industry entered the adjustment period, cold food oats declined year on year. The company's leading edge is solid, and its market share continues to increase. According to Nielsen, the company has a market share of about 14.8% in 2021, ranking first in the industry, while online channels have a market share of about 18.8%, far ahead. Looking to the future, the oat market still has potential, the company will continue to develop pure oatmeal, composite oatmeal, upgrade cold food oat product matrix, full-channel power is expected to steadily increase revenue in 2022.
The decline in net interest rate is mainly due to the increase in the rate of sales expenses.
The company's 2021Q4 net interest rate decreased 7.7pct compared with the same period last year, mainly because the sales expense rate increased 20.4pct to 42.6%: (1) the Spring Festival in 2022 was earlier, and 2021Q4 was included in the Spring Festival expenses expended in advance; (2) the new products were still being promoted, and the activity was intensive; (3) there was a large investment in expenses on new channels such as Douyin. 2021Q4's gross profit margin increased by 12.5pct to 46.1%, with an increase in e-commerce channel gross profit margin. From the product point of view: (1) the gross profit margin of pure oats increased; (2) the gross profit margin of composite oatmeal decreased slightly, mainly because the production capacity was in the climbing period and there was more activity investment in the new product promotion period; (3) the gross profit margin of cold oatmeal increased slightly. Looking forward to 2022, imported oat grains are expected to rise moderately but can be controlled as a whole, and the company can alleviate the pressure by upgrading product structure, reducing cost and increasing efficiency; the cost investment during the period of new product promotion and channel development is still large, and the expense rate is expected to remain high.
Risk tips: macroeconomic downside risks, new product promotion risks less than expected, food safety risks.