The company released 2021 annual report: 2021 revenue of 7.673 billion yuan, year-on-year-1.78%, return to the mother net profit of 948 million yuan, year-on-year-34.07%, deducted non-return net profit of 961 million yuan, year-on-year-36.65%. Among them, the revenue in the fourth quarter alone was 1.851 billion yuan, + 3.1% compared with the same period last year, and the net profit returned to the mother was-6 million yuan.
The company's annual revenue declined slightly: from a business perspective, the company's annual cement revenue was 6.898 billion yuan, year-on-year-1.51%, accounting for 89.7% of revenue; clinker revenue was 162 million yuan, + 35.81%, accounting for 1.5%; mixed revenue was 539 million yuan, year-on-year-13.95%, accounting for 8%; aggregate revenue was 47.833 million yuan, + 59.25%. From a regional point of view, during the reporting period, only the sales volume of Longnan and Qinghai-Tibet increased, and Tianshui, which accounted for the largest proportion of income, accounted for-8.29% compared with the same period last year, and Longnan, which accounted for the second proportion of income and the highest gross profit margin, was + 12.61% compared with the same period last year. In other areas with traditional advantages, revenue in Lanzhou accounted for 17%,-2.40% compared with the same period last year, while revenue in Qinghai-Tibet accounted for 16%, + 6.56% compared with the same period last year. The decline area is mainly in Gannan region, accounting for 4% of revenue,-16.65% compared with the same period last year. The gross profit margin of each district has declined to varying degrees, mainly due to rising coal prices and declining sales.
In terms of unit ton index: the company currently has 17 cement production bases, 20 dry clinker production lines in service, 9 commercial concrete production bases and 3 aggregate production bases, laying the foundation for the company's market expansion. In terms of production and sales volume-ton index, ① cement (including clinker) sold about 23.5365 million tons in 2021,-0.8% year-on-year, with an average price of about 300 yuan / ton, + 0.6 yuan / ton. Among them, cement sold 22.804 million tons, year-on-year-1.9%, corresponding price 303 yuan / ton, year-on-year + 1.2 yuan / ton; clinker sales 732500 tons, a year-on-year increase of 51.19%, corresponding price of 221 yuan / ton, year-on-year-25 yuan / ton. Cement clinker gross margin of 85 yuan, year-on-year-27.4 yuan, of which cement ton gross profit of 87 yuan, year-on-year-27 yuan. ② aggregate sales of 1.3679 million tons, year-on-year + 51.47%, gross profit margin 35.43%, year-on-year + 5.60%, lower than East and Central China. ③ merchants mixed 140.8 million square meters,-12.2% year-on-year, and the gross profit margin was 16.03%,-1.16% year-on-year.
Revenue-production and marketing plan increases slightly in 2022: the company plans to sell 23 million tons of cement, 1.1 million square meters of mixed cement and 1.6 million tons of aggregate in 2022, with revenue of 8 billion +. The growth within the company is reflected in: ① cement production capacity expansion, production line upgrading, the company's cement production capacity planning goal is 4000 million tons / year, more than half of the big line (5000t/d), ② to improve aggregate, commercial mix contribution, aggregate 50 million tons, commercial concrete 2000 million square (compared with 2021 production of 1.78 million tons, 141 million square).
It is expected to benefit from the northwest infrastructure effort: the acceleration of the ① infrastructure project, the allocation of land for the third phase of Lanzhou Zhongchuan Airport expansion project in April, the completion of the first pile foundation of the Lanhe Railway on March 23, marking the official start of the main project, and the announcement of the land use of the Wuwei-Zhangye section of the Lanzhang-Zhangye line on March 31, indicating the imminent start of construction, as well as new construction projects such as the railway from Dingxi to Pingliang to Qingyang. ② 2022 Gansu transportation plan to invest 100 billion yuan (2021 plan 98 billion, complete 98.45 billion). ③ Qilian Mountain is the cement leader of Gansu, Qinghai and Tibet, which dominates the market of key projects such as airports and railways. Gansu and Qinghai account for 45% and 23% of the total.
Investment advice: we expect the company's 2022-2024 return net profit of 11.9,12.2 and 1.28 billion yuan, corresponding to 7, 7 and 7 times PE respectively, covering for the first time and giving a "recommended" rating.
Risk hint: the construction of the project is not as expected; the risk of weather-epidemic interference with the construction period.