The 21-year net profit of returning to the mother increased by 12.7% compared with the same period last year. The 21-year annual report was released on April 22, with revenue of 1.19 billion yuan, an increase of 32.5% over the same period last year, and a net profit of 155 million yuan, an increase of 12.7% over the same period last year. The performance is lower than our forecast of 209 million yuan. According to the latest share capital of 213 million shares, the corresponding EPS is 0.73 yuan, and the company plans to pay out 3.50 yuan for every 10 shares.
Affected by the epidemic, power cuts and temporary outages, 21Q4 achieved a revenue of 258 million yuan, down 8.2% from the same period last year, and realized a net profit of 32 million yuan (after deducting 33 million yuan), down 22.0% from the same period last year.
Considering the impact of the epidemic, the superimposed production line has not fully recovered, we downgrade the company's EPS in 22-23 to 1.03 EPS (1.27max 1.64), and give the forecast of 1.34 yuan EPS in 24 years. Combined with the comparable company valuation level (Wind consensus expected 22-year average of 15 times PE), we give the company 15 times PE in 22 years, corresponding to the target price of 15.45 yuan (the previous value is 20.58 yuan), and maintain the "overweight" rating.
The release of flame retardant capacity led to an increase in sales, and the rise in raw material prices pushed up product prices. The company's surfactant / flame retardant / silicone rubber sales volume in 21 years was respectively 48,000 tons / 20000 tons (yoy+6.4%/+56%/-11%). The sharp increase in flame retardant sales was due to the release of production capacity of Huaian Chenghua 20,000 tons / year flame retardant project in 21 years, but power cuts and park accidents still affected the company's polyetheramine production capacity. The average sales price of the three businesses is 1.48,18,000,000 yuan / ton (yoy+15%/+8.0%/+31%), and the income is 7.15kg / ton 3.51 hundred million yoy+23%/+68%/+16% respectively. The average price of raw material PO/EO/ aliphatic alcohol / DMC in 21 years is 1.69 max 0.78 max 1.62 max per ton (yoy+38%/+9.1%/+57%/+67%), and the gross profit margin of surfactant / flame retardant / silicone rubber is 27.0% 20.1% max 15.1% (yoy-4.0pct/-6.7pct/-4.2pct) respectively.
The production line has not yet fully resumed production and superimposed the impact of the epidemic. In the first quarter of 2022, the net profit decreased by 18% compared with the same period last year. Chenghua shares also released the quarterly report for 22 years, with revenue of 273 million yuan, down 10.3% from the same period last year, and an increase of 5.8% from the previous month. The net profit returned to the mother was 41 million, down 18.0% from the same period last year, and up 28.1% from the previous year.
The gross profit margin was 29.3%, an increase of 2.9pct over the same period last year and 4.2pct on a month-on-month basis. During the reporting period, the company's overall income and net profit declined compared with the same period last year, mainly due to the fact that the production line using Class A raw materials by Huaian Chenhua, a wholly-owned subsidiary of the company, had not yet fully resumed production after the temporary suspension of production, which superimposed the impact of epidemic prevention and control on the company's production and operation.
The price of raw materials has partially fallen, and the recovery of production capacity has led to sustained growth.
On April 22, 22, according to the price of PO/EP/ fatty alcohol / DMC in East China of Baichuan Yingfu, the price was 1.14, 0.82 and 2.13 million yuan / ton respectively, down 3.4% since the beginning of April, and 9.0% and 6.7% respectively since the beginning of April.
Benefiting from the strong demand for epoxy curing agent in the wind power field, polyetheramine has made a good profit, with the gradual recovery of the company's annual production capacity of 5000 tons of terminal amino polyether project, and the steady progress of the follow-up 3000 tons / year polyether amine project table. the performance is still expected to improve steadily.
Risk hint: the risk of a continuous downturn in downstream demand and the risk that the progress of the new project falls short of the expected risk.
